WHEN WILL IT END?

Those wanting to know when the region's gang violence will come to an
end may not like the answer.

According to several experts, the rampant bloodshed may get worse
before it gets better.

"There could be a lot more violence before police wrestle this to the
ground," said Julian Sher, a renowned journalist who has published
books about the Hells Angels and organized crime.

But unlike the infamous motorcycle gang, Sher said the gangs operating
in the Lower Mainland are more unpredictable.

"The problem is that it's a lot more complicated than people think.
It's not just two warring factions," he said. "It's a bunch of rival
gangs and undisciplined shootings. There are a lot of loose cannons
out there."

Even the police trumpeting the arrest of Barzan Tilli-Choli - an
alleged high-ranking member of the United Nations gang - will have
little impact on the violence, at first.

"There are many players. People in Vancouver have to realize this is a
very complicated battleground," Sher said.

"The beginning of arrests doesn't make the whole house of cards
collapse."

The only way to bring down these organizations, according to Sher, is
with extensive intelligence and infiltration.

"Those are long-term operations, they take years," he said. "These are
not crimes of passion that are solved within 24 to 48 hours."

And even when this latest spike of shootings comes to an end, the gang
issue will be far from over.

"There is no end," said Robert Gordon, the head of Simon Fraser
University's criminology department. "Every time these die down, there
will be more because we don't have a coherent policy on the illegal
drug trade."

Gordon pointed to the rash of gangland shootings in 2007 that
culminated in the October killing of six people at a Whalley condo.

"[Gang activity] closed down due to police officers and
over-surveillance, but that only lasted a few months," he said. "You
can shut down the operations but the market is there. So people try to
get at that market and they start shooting each other over it."

The problem is, according to Gordon, that that U.S. war on drugs makes
it difficult for Canada to set its own policies that stray too far.

Until that changes, police need to focus on disrupting the numerous
groups doing business in the streets of Greater Vancouver.