SOLDIERS IN JUAREZ: VIOLENCE ABATES, BUT FOR HOW LONG

Don't be too quick to start cheering about the decrease in violence
in Juarez.Not that the hiatus isn't welcome. It certainly is, because
more than 1,960 lives have been lost in Juarez since January 2008 as
a result of the war between drug cartels. Nationwide, an estimated
6,000 have died in the violence.

However, an infusion of 3,200 Army troops during the weekend, along
with another 700 federal police officers, brought a sharp drop in homicides.

That's great, but no one can afford to assume that it's the solution.

You might recall that a year ago, the federal government first
deployed soldiers to Juarez, a move that was accompanied by a
decrease in violence.

But then the war began again with even greater ferocity and there was
no indication that the soldiers' presence had any positive effect on
the situation.

What could be happening now is that cartel leaders are sitting back,
assessing the situation and deciding how best to confront new circumstances.

The only certainty is that the response will be violent.

City officials in Juarez say that the military is going to take
command of the city police, Cereso prison and the transit police.
Also, federal police will join city inspectors in checking bars and nightclubs.

Juarez Mayor Jose Reyes Ferriz said, "The objective of this operation
is to close establishments that don't comply with legal requirements
to operate and are dedicated to or conceal the sale of drugs and
allow the entrance of minors."

Perhaps that will help, but it sounds like only a small part of the problem.

The overarching problem is well-armed, well-financed drug cartels
battling for supremacy in a narcotics trade that means vast wealth
and power for whoever has the upper hand. That kind of money and
power can eliminate concern for human lives -- and that includes the
lives of innocent civilians.

And one of the big question marks here is where and how far do the
cartels' tentacles reach? How big a part does government corruption
play in the drug story? How much, or how little? Who can be trusted,
and who cannot be trusted?

Also, not everyone is happy with the increased military presence,
which one columnist described as a "green tsunami." Human rights
activists are claiming abuses by Army personnel.

It probably will be some weeks before it can be discerned whether the
increased military and police presence is doing any good. Many people
doubt it is the solution. And if this doesn't work, we wonder, what's next?