TEXAS CRAFTS PLAN FOR MEXICO COLLAPSE

"You hope for the best, plan for the worst"

AUSTIN -- Texas officials are working on a plan to respond to a potential
collapse of the Mexican government and the specter of thousands fleeing
north in fear for their lives after recent reports indicated the country
could be on the verge of chaos.

"You hope for the best, plan for the worst," Katherine Cesinger,
spokeswoman for Gov. Rick Perry, said last week. "At this point, we've got
a contingency plan that's in development."

Late last year the U.S. Department of Defense issued a report that listed
Pakistan and Mexico as countries that could rapidly collapse. The report
came after similar alarms sounded by the U.S. Department of Homeland
Security and former U.S. drug czar Barry McCaffrey.

"I think their fears are well-grounded," Texas Home land Security Director
Steve McCraw told lawmakers recently at a border security briefing.

Lawmakers expressed concern that the state's southern neighbor, embroiled
in drug violence and facing uncertain economic conditions, could send
thousands north in search of safety.

State Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Sugarland, asked McCraw at the meeting whether
Texas had a plan to cope with such a situation.

"We have a preliminary plan," McCraw said. "There needs to be one in place."

McCraw, a Perry appointee, was unavailable to comment for this story, but
Cesinger said the plan was in early stages.

It now deals with only law enforcement concerns, she said, and not any
potential crush of humanitarian needs the state might face if thousands of
refugees flood across the border. "That might be something that comes into
consideration as it's developed," Cesinger said.

Destabilization in Mexico might be only a remote possibility, but
lawmakers said preparing for any potential disaster is prudent.

State Sen. John Carona, R-Dallas, said Texas should plan to deal with not
only security concerns but also basic needs refugees would have for
housing, health care and food.

"It seems very far-fetched that something like this could occur," he said.
"At the same time, I think it would be na ve to believe it's impossible."

El Paso Democratic state Sen. Eliot Shapleigh said El Paso is already
seeing refugees from the violence in Juarez.

More than 1,600 died in the drug violence there last year, and the
bloodbath continues. More than 200 people have been slain so far this
year.

Nearly 50 victims of the violence in Juarez were shuttled to Thomason
Hospital for treatment last year. And Shapleigh said many people from
Juarez who can afford to are moving north to El Paso. Developing a
contingency plan to deal with a potential Mexican downfall makes sense, he
said.

"Better to investigate, examine and plan now, rather than make ad hoc
decisions later," Shapleigh said.

Tony Payan, a political science professor at the University of Texas at El
Paso, said Mexico is nowhere near the brink of demise.

Problems in Mexico are serious, he said, but the nodes of violence are
concentrated in specific areas of the country and primarily involve the
warring drug cartels.

"I am standing on campus in Ciudad Juarez now," Payan said Thursday.
"Students are working, students are going to class, people are shopping."

Developing a plan to cope with a disaster south of the border was not a
bad idea, Payan said.

But Texas could do more to help prevent a catastrophe in Mexico, he said,
by working with state and local officials in that country to reinforce
their governments.

While federal officials in the U.S. and Mexico often work together, Payan
said, state and local leaders with firsthand knowledge of the problems
often mistrust one another and fail to collaborate to deal with their
mutual concerns.

"Often we want to solve the problems with the border as if they stopped at
the international line," Payan said, "and they do not."