IS MEXICO REALLY COLLAPSING?

If you've read this column for a while, you've recognized there's a
contrarian streak in me. That usually shows up in my choice of topics,
as I often avoid the "big story" plastered in headlines and on CNN in
favor of something not being covered well. When I do address a topic
that's reached the mainstream, I look for aspects not being addressed.

The first column I wrote regarding Mexico was almost three years ago,
in February 2006. It concerned a confrontation near El Paso pitting
Texas state troopers and sheriff's deputies against a group of heavily
armed men in military uniforms coming across from Mexico. My thoughts
then were, "When a country cannot or will not keep foreign armed
forces from crossing into its territory, it may not be a country for
much longer."

Since then, I've written frequently about what I call the
narco-insurgency boiling over to our south. The situation in Mexico
now transcends the domestic policy arguments over immigration. It's
clearly a national security issue. The Obama administration, although
they'd like to focus on economic and social issues, will be forced to
deal with the fire on our doorstep.

Only recently have establishment media turned their attention to
Mexico, with more feature stories and airtime about the ongoing
carnage - more than 5,300 drug-related killings in 2008, double the
2007 toll. But most come late to the issue and fixate on shootings,
beheadings and other gruesome details. Finding lucid explanations of
what is going on behind the scenes is difficult.

This is partly because "if it bleeds, it leads" but also because
there's now a pack mentality pushing the line that Mexico is on the
verge of becoming a failed state. Two pieces of dark analysis have
gotten alarmist ink recently. Retired Gen. Barry McCaffery states
"Mexico is on the edge of the abyss -- it could become a narco-state
in the coming decade." Likewise, a forecasting study by Joint Forces
Command says Mexico and Pakistan run the risk of "rapid and sudden
collapse."

And here's where my contrarian streak kicks in. Yes, I've been warning
about chaos down south and the havoc the narco-insurgency can unleash
for Americans - see www.thiscouldget interesting.com. But shoot-outs
and cartel wars are essentially old news to me. I'm looking for deeper
trends, trying to piece together underlying dynamics and challenging
prevailing storylines. So here are some questions I'm now asking:

How widespread is the narco-war? Is Mexico really becoming a "hollowed
out" state? Or are border towns like Tijuana, Juarez and Nuevo Loredo
hyper-violent exceptions?

How much success has the government had? Have 40,000 deployed Mexican
troops had an effect? Have government anti-corruption efforts helped?

Mexican authorities claim rising violence is actually a sign of
desperation from the cartels. Is there truth in this?

Could it be that a corner has been turned, and we just can't see it
yet?

Will U.S. aid in the $1.4 billion Merida Initiative make any
difference? What else can or should the United States do?

I don't know the answers yet, but I'm looking.