U.S. MILITARY ROLE POSSIBLE IN MEXICO DRUG FIGHT

Longtime Concerns Over Joint Effort May Fade

MEXICO CITY - Alarmed by spiraling drug violence along their shared
border, U.S. and Mexican officials say they foresee an enhanced U.S.
role in the battle against powerful cartels, including joint
operations that could involve private American contractors or U.S.
military and intelligence personnel.

The U.S. and Mexican officials say their cooperation could go beyond
the current practice of "sharing intelligence." They say that
historical concerns about Mexican sovereignty may be overcome by the
challenge in restoring stability to key regions, particularly along the border.

Several officials, interviewed separately and on the condition of
anonymity, stressed that specifics about an enhanced U.S. role remain
unclear and that the timing is also unclear and will largely depend
on the widening violence.

But "everything is on the table," one Mexican official said,
including "joint operations."

"I agree with that statement," said a senior U.S. counternarcotics
official agrees. "I think the cooperation is unprecedented, and it's
yielding unprecedented results."

Tony Garza, who last week resigned as U.S. ambassador, also wouldn't
rule out joint operations but cautioned, "We've come a long way in
terms of law enforcement cooperation, but I don't think you'll see
joint operations in the traditional sense in the near term."

It's too early in the administration of President Barack Obama to
determine whether any change in drug policy is imminent. And, at
first glance, the idea of joint operations is seen as an affront to
sovereignty.

Schoolchildren in Mexico are taught from an early age about the U.S.
military occupying Mexican soil, plus the loss of half its territory
- - including Arizona, New Mexico and California - after the 1846-48
U.S.-Mexico war.

"Mexicans are not culturally prepared for joint operations, and by
doctrine, the very idea would be rejected by the Mexican military,"
said Raul Benitez, an expert on the Mexican military at the National
Autonomous University of Mexico.

Still, the bloodbath in Mexico is widening. The number of gangland
slayings more than doubled in 2008 from the previous year, to more
than 5,700. U.S. officials say they view the violence as a national
security threat because routes to transport drugs north could be
exploited by terrorists.

Underscoring those concerns are new alarms being sounded, including a
report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command that says lack of security
puts Mexico and Pakistan at risk of becoming failed states.

That assessment is challenged by senior U.S. and Mexican officials,
including Mexico's Interior Minister Fernando Francisco Gomez Mont and Garza.

"Mexico is not even close to becoming a failed state," Garza said.
"You can bet there will be more violence, but we need to be
supportive of this administration's efforts and build alliances with
Mexico, not slip back into a climate where we blame first and think later."

Next month, the Woodrow Wilson Center's Mexico Institute, a
Washington research organization, will recommend that both
governments "establish joint or combined binational law enforcement
units capable of quick response to cartel activity."

To deal with issues of mistrust, one analyst suggested, the U.S.
government will need to allow Mexican federal law enforcement
investigators on U.S. soil, albeit in limited roles.

Armand Peschard-Sverdrup, a political consultant, predicted that
"joint operations on both sides of the border will be a key decision
made by the Obama and Calderon administrations in the months to come.
Otherwise, joint operations will be unacceptable for the Mexicans."

Mexican agents are already being posted in key U.S. agencies, he said.

"We're talking about a transnational threat that doesn't stop on the
Mexican side," he added.

Underscoring the increased cooperation is the $1.4 billion Merida
Initiative, a U.S. aid plan that calls for the use of private
contractors to train Mexicans in the handling of sophisticated new
equipment, including helicopters.

Signs that cartel leaders were negotiating a truce have ended, the
U.S. counternarcotics official said, because they couldn't agree on a
split of key states Tabasco and Veracruz.

The result is increased bloodshed in some trouble spots. In Ciudad
Juarez, across the border from El Paso, more than 100 people have
been killed this month, compared with 40 for last January.

The senior U.S. counternarcotics official predicted that a high level
of violence will continue for at least another "four to five years"
before authorities can weaken the Sinaloa cartel, as they have the
Arellano Felix group, the Tijuana-based cartel whose power has been
diminished considerably.

The official noted, however, that drug organizations use up to half
their proceeds to pay off government officials, making enforcement
more difficult.

And as the economic situation worsens, analysts predict organized
crime is likely to grow.

"Mexico is not a narco state, but we're witnessing a giant criminal
apparatus operated by drug traffickers," said Arturo Yanez, an author
and security expert at the Autonomous University in the state of
Mexico. "If Mexico is not a failed state, it sure is acting like one."

In Juarez, a group calling itself the Juarez Citizens Command is
claiming it will take the law into its own hands and kill a criminal
every 24 hours to bring order to the city, a reminder of similar
vigilante groups in Colombia.

Howard Campbell, a border anthropologist and drug expert at the
University of Texas at El Paso, said Mexico's situation is different
from Colombia.

"I really characterize this as a civil war, even if it's not formally
declared," Campbell said. "We're seeing all the casualties of a war,
people murdered, people wounded, people fleeing their homes, social
disintegration and chaos.

"This is more like Afghanistan than Colombia, with regional, powerful
chieftains who operate with complete authority, oftentimes through
graft and corruption."