FOR OUR NO 1 THREAT, LOOK SOUTH

Now that the war in Iraq is won, President Barack Obama and Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton need to turn to the most significant terrorist
threat facing the United States. And it's not Afghanistan. It's Mexico.
Mexico is creeping closer to becoming a narco-state.

President Felipe Calderon is the latest in a series of Mexican chief
executives to take on the country's five major drug criminal syndicates.
Two years into his campaign, he's been extraordinarily effective. Yet his
success against the Gulf cartel, one of the most powerful, has contributed
to Mexico's instability.

Why? Other drug cartels have started a war among themselves over the
spoils that have resulted from a weakened and less capable Gulf
organization. They've also escalated their war against the government.

This escalation of violence is what is destabilizing Mexican security and
threatening to bleed across the border into the United States. In 2007,
approximately 2,400 people died in drug-related violence in Mexico. For
2008, I've seen estimates from ranging from 5,200 to 6,600.

These deaths have come with an escalation in terrorist tactics that
include physical and mental intimidation, torture, dismemberment and
beheadings. Severed body parts are often put on public display. Beheadings
that were once inflicted after death are now occurring while the victim is
alive, according to Mexican officials.

The level of violence is so high, Mexico's Congress is considering whether
to reinstate the death penalty -- recent surveys report that 70 percent of
citizens favor its return. The country abolished capital punishment in
2005, but that only formalized reality. Mexico hadn't executed a criminal
since 1961.

The current reign of terror, coupled with good old-fashioned bribes, has
rendered local state police forces practically useless against the
cartels. Calderon has relied almost exclusively on the army and navy. The
wear and tear is beginning to show.

Mexico's 225,000-man army is stretched to its limit, with soldiers
experiencing multiple deployments within their own country. In a "surge"
tactic of his own, Calderon has dispatched troops to every Mexican state
to provide security for a portion of the populace.

In some cases, these troops are fighting former comrades. During the past
six years, a reported 125,000 Mexican soldiers have deserted. Many have
defected to the drug lord side, having been recruited with better food and
accommodations, pay and munitions.

Most of their arms come from the United States, according to retired U.S.
Gen. Barry McCaffrey, now an adjunct professor of international affairs at
West Point. He visited Mexico last month and issued an alarming report. It
urged the Obama administration to begin to address a plethora of Mexican
problems that could directly affect our national interests.

High on that list is for the United States to stop the flow of guns from
this country into the arsenals of the drug cartels. According to
McCaffrey, the drug lords are importing automatic weapons, including AK-47
assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenades.

McCaffrey doesn't mince words with his indictment of U.S. officials over
their incompetence and indifference toward Mexican pleas for help in
stopping the flow of weapons from the north. He writes: "We would consider
it an act of warfare from a sanctuary state if we were the victim. The
bottom line -- the U.S. is ineffective and unresponsive to Mexican
concerns about weapons, bulk cash, and precursor chemicals flowing south
into Mexico."

Combating weapons smuggling is just the start for a lasting solution.
Mexico needs economic aid to reduce a 25 percent unemployment rate. And
Mexico's corruption is legendary.

Why should we care? Despite the attention Washington showers on every
other part of the globe, Mexico is arguably our most important partner.
Beyond a shared border, Mexico provides us with much of our imported oil.
Fifty percent of its goods are made or grown here.

Fixing Mexico won't be easy. It will take multilateral efforts that
include Central American countries. The worst thing the Obama
administration can do for Mexico is to continue doing what we have done in
the past -- next to nothing.