LOOK FOR TRENDS IN CRIME STATISTICS

Readers were no doubt taken by the bold headline declaring "Violent
crime rising in nation, state" on the front page of Tuesday's Connecticut Post.

The study, which was tabulated by using FBI data, concluded that
murders, robberies and aggravated assaults all increased in the
United States last year -- the first rise in violent crime since 2001.

Nationally, there were more than 16,900 murders in 2005 -- the
largest total since 1998. There was a total increase in violent crime
of 2.5 percent during the past year, the highest boost since 1991.

The numbers for Connecticut were a mixed bag. Murders were up in all
four of the state's major cities -- Bridgeport, Stamford, Hartford
and Waterbury. Reports of violent crime were up slightly in
Bridgeport and Stamford but down slightly in Hartford and Waterbury.
Robberies and rapes were up in Stamford and Bridgeport but down in
Waterbury and Hartford.

But while these numbers might be startling at first glance, they
might not be quite as they seem.

After all, the study only offers a snapshot of the state's violent
crimes for one year -- 2005. Ask any good law enforcement officer,
and they'll tell you that in a year's time, anything can happen in
the world of crime -- and often without rhyme or reason.

Take the recent shootings in Hartford's North End during the past
weeks -- 20 people shot since May 24. The shootings have law
enforcement in Hartford on high alert and have residents
understandably concerned.

But is there any overarching reason for those shootings? One that
could have helped police prevent them? Probably not.

That's because crime doesn't display solid patterns in the short
term. It's only after years of data collection that crime trends can
be discovered and interpreted.

Of course, the FBI report is disconcerting. But it's only one small
part of a bigger picture. If these violent crime statistics continue,
then there will be cause for a more in-depth look at how the state's
urban centers are fighting crime.

In the meantime, though, it's important to see the forest for the trees.