BOLIVIA TO VOTE ON NEW CONSTITUTION

The Measure Will Let President Morales Seek Another Term, and Give
Land and Royalties From Resources to Indians.

A new constitution that voters are expected to approve today would
give more power to Bolivia's indigenous communities, promote agrarian
reform and allow President Evo Morales to seek reelection to another term.

But analysts warn that passage of the new constitution also could
worsen Bolivia's polarization, throw its legal system into chaos, and
discourage investment in the natural resources that are its main
ticket to prosperity.

Morales, a onetime coca farmer and Bolivia's first Indian president,
is following his regional allies, leftist Presidents Hugo Chavez of
Venezuela and Rafael Correa of Ecuador, in seeking a new constitution
to lengthen his time in office and increase his powers.

Morales enjoys the support of more than 60% of Bolivia's population
of 9.2 million, including solid backing from indigenous people. Many
in the middle class and intelligentsia who are fed up with a history
of ineffective government also back him.

"This would be a very significant victory for Evo," said Eduardo
Gamarra, political scientist at Florida International University. "It
basically gives him carte blanche to do what he feels like."

Today's vote follows a year of tension in Bolivia, the poorest nation
in South America. In 2008, four of the country's nine states defied
Morales and passed measures seeking more autonomy. Morales easily
survived a recall vote, but violence in September in northern Pando
state left more than a dozen dead.

The conflict pits the largely indigenous population of the western
highlands against cattlemen and soy farmers in the eastern states,
which are rich in natural resources.

The new constitution would boost indigenous rights by promoting
"community justice" to replace traditional courts, and by recognizing
the rights of 36 ethnic groups to control their land and claim
royalties on natural resources.

Political analyst Lupe Andrade, former mayor of the capital, La Paz,
warned that competition for royalties from Bolivia's many mineral and
energy projects could lead to conflict among ethnic groups.

The vote comes as relations between Bolivia and the United States are
fraying. The top U.S. diplomat in La Paz, Krishna Urs, walked out of
Morales' state of the union speech Thursday after he alleged that the
United States was interfering in Bolivian affairs. Urs has been in
charge of the embassy since Morales expelled Ambassador Philip
Goldberg in September, alleging that a plot was in the works to overthrow him.

Morales has also ordered the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration to
get out by the end of this month, as international counter-narcotics
officials say coca cultivation, cocaine production and illicit
exports are on the rise. The coca plant is recognized in the new
constitution as part of Bolivia's "cultural patrimony."

The Bush administration retaliated last year by expelling Bolivia's
ambassador and ending trade preferences offered to Andean nations for
fighting the drug trade. That has cost Bolivian textile manufacturers
millions of dollars.

The Peace Corps last year removed 130 volunteers from Bolivia, and
the embassy reduced nonessential staff.

Political scientist Gamarra sees little prospect in the short term
for improvement of relations under President Obama, noting that
Morales spent part of his speech Thursday repeating his accusations
against the former ambassador.

"There is no real sentiment in the new Congress or the State
Department that's favorable of renewal of relations with Bolivia,"
Gamarra said.

Even some Morales supporters are ambivalent about the financial
support he receives from Chavez. Morales redistributes Venezuelan
cash to local mayors and makes his foreign trips on Venezuelan
military aircraft. Chavez has offered to send troops to defend
Morales in the event of a coup attempt.

The new constitution would codify national rights over mineral and
energy deposits, and more foreign-owned energy, mining and
telecommunications companies probably would be nationalized, former
President Carlos Mesa said in an interview. On Friday, Morales
nationalized Chaco Petroleum Co., a subsidiary of British-owned BP.

Parts of the proposed constitution were toned down in negotiations
with the opposition in congress, including a clause that would have
allowed Morales and future presidents two additional five-year terms;
the limit was reduced to one.

Luis Eduardo Siles, a political science professor and former
congressman, said the new constitution would advance redistribution
of land to the poor, although the mechanics are ill-defined.

"The constitution will permit the ownership of up to 25,000 acres by
a single landowner as long as the land is 'economically and socially
productive,' " Siles said. "The problem at this point is in measuring
that productivity."