WHAT IF MEXICO REALLY DID IMPLODE?

I remember being worried about living so close to Mexico when I
first moved to the Rio Grande Valley. Mexico seemed like an untamed,
violent and dangerous place to a guy from Ohio who considered Taco
Bell to be Mexican food.

In the northern part of the United States, it always seemed to me
like anything made in Mexico or even associated with Mexico was
looked down upon. There were maybe one or two Latino families among
the sea of white faces in my suburban Ohio town, and no one spoke
fluent Spanish outside of Spanish class. Needless to say, my
exposure to anything Hispanic before I moved to the Valley was
extremely limited.

As I spent more time in the Valley, I grew accustomed to being the
only guero in a restaurant or hearing more Spanish being spoken than
English. After meeting many Mexicans and actually visiting the
place, Mexico didn't seem so bad after all. Of course, visiting
somewhere and actually living there are two different things.

The front page of The Monitor's Saturday, Jan. 17 edition told
readers of a U.S. military report warning of the Mexican
government's possible collapse due to the constant violence and
influence of the nation's notorious drug cartels. The notion of the
federal government imploding does seem a bit far-fetched, but I will
admit that reading the story brought back some of my original
worries. I can't help but wonder: What if Mexico's national
government really did fall apart? How would Valley residents be affected?

Since I've only been in the Valley for a couple of years, I never
experienced life before the North American Free Trade Agreement.
From what I understand, places like McAllen were little more than
dusty border towns mostly forgotten by the rest of Texas.
The passage of NAFTA in 1993 by the Clinton administration turned
the Rio Grande Valley into what it is today - a growing,
increasingly vital - yet still repeatedly ignored part of the state.
In other words, if it weren't for Mexico and its cheap labor, the
Valley would still likely only be a mere footnote (literally) of
Texas. If Mexico's government did fall apart, it's fragile (legal)
economy would disintegrate, and so would the Valley's, as if things
weren't bad enough already.

Once the Valley economy falls apart, I could imagine that people
would be scrambling to leave the area. Businesses might relocate,
and the precious few young professionals McAllen seems to covet
would disappear to San Antonio. Winter Texans would probably think
twice about vacationing in the Valley, and Spring Breakers might
find somewhere else besides South Padre Island to party. Even the
birdwatchers might seek another place to see their beloved chachalacas.

If the cartels did somehow take over Mexico, the nation's federal
troops would be likely powerless to stop drug lords from butchering
each other in border towns like Progreso or Reynosa. Violence would
inevitably spill over into the Valley, putting innocent American
lives at risk. The aforementioned report states that a "surge" of
possible U.S. military enforcement might be sent to border regions
to protect us, but I doubt their effectiveness. If our
own government neglects the very citizens that give it power - just
ask a Hurricane Katrina survivor - then how could we depend on Uncle
Sam to save us? The feds are too inept and seemingly more interested
lining their own pockets to truly help Katrina victims and the city
of New Orleans itself more than three years after the storm. Hell,
we can't even get decent levees built here. Why would we expect the
government to bail us out when they're too busy bailing out failing
banks, fighting two wars and fighting a! mong themselves?

The Valley and Mexico are linked by family ties unlike any other
place I've ever visited. Should anarchy rule Mexico, would all
non-United States citizens be allowed to stay in America for their
own safety, or would they still be forced to return to Mexico? Would
Mexicans traveling or working outside of their country be able to
go home, or even want to? America could be faced with an
overwhelming number of refugees fleeing for their lives, which would
make the current immigration problem seem minor.

Cartel violence will only subside when America's prohibition of
drugs is loosened or ended altogether. People will always want
drugs, and dealers will always find ways to supply users. Anyone who
reads The Monitor even on a casual basis is likely to see stories
about drug seizures involving marijuana - as in several hundred
pounds of the stuff - confiscated almost daily. Some Libertarians
suggest that the legalization of marijuana would reduce crime in
both the United States and especially Mexico. Perhaps the
governments of both countries could create new jobs and make billions
of dollars off of taxes or tariffs on legalized,
strictly controlled marijuana, which would do nothing but help in a
time of economic distress.

Anarchy in Mexico hasn't happened yet, and it most likely won't - I
hope. I can't help but think that if Mexico's federal government
does collapse, the United States and its insatiable appetite for
drugs is at least partially to blame.