JOINT FORCES REPORT WARNS MEXICO COULD DESTABILIZE

EL PASO -- Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration
for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a report by the U.S.
Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.

The command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which
contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts
Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. "In terms of worse-case
scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and
important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse:
Pakistan and Mexico.

"The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government,
its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under
sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels.
How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will
have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any
descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based
on the serious implications for homeland security alone."

The Joint Forces Command in Norfolk, Va., is a Defense Department
combat command that includes different military service branches,
active and reserves. One of its roles is to transform the military's
capabilities.

In the report's foreword, Marine Gen. J.N. Mattis, the Joint Forces
commander, said "Predictions about the future are always risky. ...
Regardless, if we do not try to forecast the future, there is no
doubt that we will be caught off guard as we strive to protect this
experiment in democracy that we call America."

The report offers "a Polaroid snapshot," and conditions in Mexico and
elsewhere are in a state of flux, said Brig. Gen. Jose Riojas,
executive director of the National Center for Border Security and
Immigration at the University of Texas at El Paso. "I'm not sure
Mexico looks today like it did nine months ago," Riojas said.

The report is the latest focusing on Mexico's security problems,
which stem mostly from drug violence and corruption. Recently, the
Department of Homeland Security and former U.S. drug czar Barry
McCaffrey issued similar assessments.

Despite such reports, El Pasoan Veronica Callaghan, a border business
leader, said she keeps running into people who "are in denial about
what is happening in Mexico."

Last week, Mexican President Felipe Calderon Hinojosa instructed his
embassy and consular officials to promote a positive image of Mexico.
He's also vowed to continue the crackdown on drug cartels.