EX-U.S. DRUG CZAR WARNS OF MEXICAN BORDER RUSH

EL PASO -- Former U.S. drug czar Barry McCaffrey contends that
millions of people may rush to cross the U.S. border if security
conditions worsen and lead to a governmental collapse in Mexico.

"A failure by the Mexican political system to curtail lawlessness and
violence could result (in) a surge of millions of refugees crossing
the U.S. border to escape the domestic misery of violence, failed
economic policy, po verty, hunger, joblessness, and the mindless
cruelty and injustice of a criminal state," McCaffrey said in an
after-action report based on the Dec. 5-7 International Forum of
Intelligence & Security Specialists in Mexico, an advisory group to
Mexican law enforcement leaders.

McCaffrey, who has compared Mexico's situation to Iraq's, said in his
report "Visit Mexico: 5-7 December 2008":

. Nearly 7,000 people were murdered in Mexico's drug wars since 2006;
3,985 of these occurred from Jan. 1 to Nov. 25, 2008.

. Corruption is pervasive, and even reached into the U.S. Embassy
"with a DEA Mexican national employee recently arrested for being an
agent of the Sinaloa cartel ... corrupted with a $450,000 bribe."

. The Mexican government under President Felipe Calderon has done
much to crack down on the cartels.

. Mexico is fighting for survival against narcoterrorism.

The report portrays a scenario reminiscent of ex-Defense Secretary
Caspar Weinberger's 1998 fictional book "The Next War," which
describes U.S. military intervention after a Mexican regime collapse
due to warring drug cartels.

Three years ago, Tom Clancy's video game "Ghost Recon Advanced
Warfighter," created controversy because it depicted ghosts of U.S.
soldiers taking out targets in Juarez, a game Chihuahua officials tried to ban.

Mario Gonzalez Roman, a former consultant for the U.S. State
Department and United Nations, said that contrary to the picture
McCaffrey paints, "the Mexican state is far from collapsing."

He operates a Web site in Mexico (www.securitycornermexico.com) that
provides free information on crime and loss prevention, and advises
victims of crime.

"Attempts to disparage Mexico's image are being conducted by private
security businesses that stand to profit from a failed state,"
Gonzalez said. "I also believe free trade has helped to facilitate
kidnappings in this country."

McCaffrey's report also provides a glimpse into Mexico's general plan
of attack against violent drug organizations: "The strategy
articulated by Mexican Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora is to
break up the four major drug cartels into 50 smaller entities and
take away their firepower and huge financial resources."

Ex-DEA official Phil Jordan said this approach -- splitting big
cartels into smaller ones -- "is not one the DEA would use. When I
was an investigator, we believed it was more efficient to first go
after the godfathers and their lieutenants instead of the smaller
cells or groups."

McCaffrey, a retired general, visited Juarez in 1999 as White House
drug czar. Then-Chihuahua Gov. Patricio Martinez criticized him for
alleging Mexico was "awash in drugs."

In his report, McCaffrey recommends that President-elect Barack
Obama's administration "immediately focus on the dangerous and
worsening problems in Mexico, which fundamentally threaten U.S.
national security."