MEXICAN DRUG CARTELS NEGOTIATING A PEACE AGREEMENT

CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico -- Mexico's warring cartels are negotiating a
truce that, if it holds, could end one of the bloodiest eras since
the 1910-20 Mexican Revolution, according to a U.S. official and
experts familiar with the talks.

A peace agreement would be the second in two years and, like the last
one, its chances of surviving are slim, the U.S. official said.

"In the end, greed prevails over reason," the official said, speaking
on condition of anonymity.

Last year was one of the bloodiest ever, with more than 5,700 people
killed nationwide, including 1,600 in Ciudad Juarez.

Because of the mounting violence, some experts, including Howard
Campbell, author of the upcoming book Drug War Zone, believe a truce
is possible. Campbell, a border anthropologist at the University of
Texas at El Paso, said violence will soon "peak out because all the
attention is bad for business."

"These guys are businessmen," Campbell said. "Violence hurts the
bottom line, their profits."

However, many experts and analysts on both sides of the border expect
rising violence.

Another concern for drug traffickers, the U.S. official said, is the
growing influence of the paramilitary group known as Zetas, enforcers
for the Gulf cartel who have expanded their services as hit men to
become mercenaries for other cartels willing to pay the price.

"They're not just mercenaries anymore," the U.S. official said.
"They're now controlling drug distribution routes, and that's of
concern to cartel leaders. They're out of control."

It's too early to know whether a truce will work, experts say. The
new year began much as the last one ended, with three New Year's Day
killings in Juarez, city officials said.