NYC CRIME RATE DROPS NEARLY 4% OVERALL

Gun arrests dropped in New York City in 2008, even as shootings
increased, an indication that some police sources said points to how
the New York Police Department's diminished size is affecting its
fight against crime.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, at a news
conference last week, touted the continued drop in the crime rate -
3.71 percent through Dec. 28. It's the 18th straight year the crime
rate has declined and the seventh consecutive year with fewer than 600
slayings, they said.

But murders rose about 5 percent, to an unofficial total of 523 last
year compared with 496 in 2007. There also were more victims of
shootings - 1,781 through Dec. 28 compared with 1,708 in 2007 - and
more shootings, 1,499 through Dec. 28 compared with 1,432 the previous
year.

At the same time, gun arrests were down 12.9 percent, to 3,079 last
year from 3,537 in 2007. And drug arrests in 2008 declined 7.5
percent, to 64,352 from 69,628 in 2007.

Some police sources drew a connection between the drop in arrest
numbers and the two-fisted wallop of a shrinking police force and
budget cuts.

There are about 4,000 fewer cops now than in 2001, when the
department's force peaked at 40,000 officers. That means fewer cops
making arrests and fewer in specialized units, sources said.

For the rest of the 2009 fiscal year, which ends June 30, the NYPD is
facing a budget cut of $45.4 million. An additional $167-million cut
is planned for fiscal year 2010, and it's possible another $286
million could be cut from that year's budget.

Other sources, however, don't connect the drop in gun and drug arrests
to the cutback in officers and money. They said the effort to get guns
off the street may have changed how criminals behave, prompting them
to carry guns less often.

Through late December, 123 people had been fatally stabbed with knives
or other sharp weapons, compared with 76 in 2007, according to two
police sources.

The same sources said narcotics officers have achieved a number of
victories in recent years, wiping out drug crews at several housing
projects and forcing dealers to conduct business more discreetly,
often inside, where it is tougher to observe sales and make arrests.

Eugene O'Donnell, a professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice,
said the department's ability to keep crime down is palpably affected
with the loss of just 1,000 officers. "The department becomes less
able, less agile to use officers for immediate needs when there are
less officers on the force," O'Donnell said. "It's a cause for
concern, but it's still another year in which people were waiting to
say, 'The city is unsafe.' That did not come to pass - the city is
still safe."

Indeed, Kelly has described the current crime numbers as "impossible
lows," saying crime has dropped 28 percent since the end of 2001. He
has consistently cited "Operation Impact," in which rookie officers
are placed in hot spots to tamp down surges in crime, as a key to that
success.

Most of the 1,129 rookies who graduated Tuesday were in Times Square
on New Year's Eve and will be assigned to Operation Impact this year,
joining 1,300 officers being held over as a way to drive down crime as
the year starts.