Violence Is Most Seen Since Early 20th Century; Drastic Measures Must
Be Taken To Halt Bloodshed

ENDING JUAREZ CHAOS A TALL TASK

EL PASO -- With the homicide toll in Juárez surpassing the 1,500
mark, authorities there are left to face what border experts are
calling the biggest Mexican dilemma -- ending the bloody street war
between drug cartels, controlling thugs who have gone wild and
preventing police corruption.

"The last time Mexico had so much turmoil and death was around the
turn of the 20th century, and there was a revolution about to
happen," said David Shirk, the director of the Trans-Border Institute
at the University of San Diego. "It is going to take something with
as much impact as that to get the problem solved."

Experts -- from political scientists to sociologists and law
enforcement agents -- believe it will take extraordinary efforts to
stop such deep-rooted problems facing Juárez and Mexico.

The proposals range from social programs to help prevent drug
trafficking, toultra-drastic measures that would establish martial
law along the border.

"The situation in Juárez is out of control ... it's chaotic," said
Tony Payan, a professor of political science at the University of
Texas at El Paso who specializes in Mexico. "The murder rate is
approaching 100 for every 100,000 people there. That makes Juárez one
of the most dangerous cities in the world."

Payan said the Mexican constitution gives the federal government two
options that are very drastic.

One would declare the local government null and void, with decisions
on the city's day-to-day operations handled out of Mexico City.

The other is having President Felipe Calderon declare a "state of
exception" in Juárez, giving way for war-like rule in the city.

"You basically do what the Americans did in Baghdad to bring it under
control," he said. "You deploy 30,000 soldiers to Juárez and have
them go colonia by colonia to clear the people that don't belong
there in an attempt to flush out all criminal activity."

And while Juárez officials have said they would welcome added
military presence, Payan said the two options he presented are
extreme and are unlikely to happen.

More reasonable options do exist, though, he said.

Among the the options is the improvement of municipal and state
police departments, which have been plagued by corruption.

Earlier this fall, Juárez officials announced the firing of 334
officers who failed exams aimed at reducing corruption and acceptance
of bribes.

And while the Juárez police department has begun running drug and
polygraph tests to gauge honesty among its officers, the state police has not.

"Juárez may not have the cleanest police department in the country,
but they have done a lot to clean it up," Payan said. "The state has
not done the same thing, and Governor (José Reyes Baeza) needs to
grab the bull by the horns."

Russ Laine, the president of the International Organization of Chiefs
of Police based in Alexandria, Va., agreed that weeding out
corruption among its law enforcement agencies needs to be a priority
for Mexican authorities.

"It's critical that the population of any city be trustful of its
police department," he said. "Without that level of trust, you will
not see any criminal reports be filed. You will not see
investigations completed. You will not see any progress."

Laine said his organization has been studying the violence in Juárez
and is considering the possibility of helping police in Mexico. He
said the organization is also working on strategies that border
police departments in the United States can use to deter criminal
activity from crossing over.

Payan lauded efforts such as the one Laine is suggesting, but said
more needs to get done on behalf of the United States to help the
police in Juárez and other crime-ridden cities along the border.

"This is where the U.S. can be very helpful. We have the technology.
We have the expertise. That's the kind of intelligence that would
give the authorities an edge over organized crime," he said.

Payan said municipal and state police in Juárez are just now getting
training on tactics such as collecting evidence and finger printing,
but that they are still "years behind the Americans" in data analysis
and cross referencing.

Juárez Mayor Jose Reyes Ferriz, though, said he feels his officers
are getting better training because of new funding.

He said the police department now has new guns, patrol cars and
radios. The city has also invested in more than 100 security cameras
throughout the city.

"We have made significant and important gains," he said. "In 2009, we
will have vast improvements in security matters."

The U.S. Congress, as part of the Mérida Initiative aimed at helping
Mexico and other Latin American countries curb drug-related violence,
authorized a three-year $1.6 billion program that will help train law
enforcement over the next three years.

The plan has been endorsed by U.S. Rep. Silvestre Reyes, D-Texas, as
a tool that will help bring stability to Juárez and keep El Paso safe.

"The escalating violence (in Juárez) is an issue that requires the
cooperation and assistance of the United States," Reyes said. "The
Mérida Initiative is an opportunity to work in partnership with
Mexico to make El Paso, the border region and our two nations safe
from drug-related crime."

But funding for training could be a moot point if the Juárez police
department stays at its current staffing of 1,500 officers. Experts
believe the city needs at least double that number.

Experts are also asking Mexican authorities to create social programs
targeting males in their late teens and early 20s -- the segment of
the Juárez population that is more susceptible to becoming involved
in drug trafficking.

According to Mexico's statistics and geography bureau, the Instituto
Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia, more than 50 percent of all 16-
to 30- year-olds in Juárez failed to graduate junior high school.

Payan said the undereducated and untrained population, especially the
males who are likely to be married with children, are forced to find
"fast and easy money" to support their families.

"We have to identify the vulnerable population and create programs to
capture the young men and take them out of danger," he said.

The Trans-Border Institute's Shirk agreed with many of Payan's observations.

But he argued that perhaps a more drastic approach is needed to end
the violence.

"Whatever is getting done right now is failing miserably. We have to
think of something that is so outside the box," he said. "Let's start
having serious conversations about issues that we would normally
dismiss, like the legalization or decriminalization of drugs."

Shirk said he doesn't endorse that approach, but that it is this type
of alternative thinking that is needed to solve the problem plaguing
the border.

"It really seems that outside of some radical solutions, the only way
to solve this problem is to let the drug cartels work it out among
themselves," he said. "That's unimaginable."