MORE 10TH-GRADERS ARE SMOKING MARIJUANA THAN CIGARETTES

Buried in the latest Monitoring the Future survey -- the major annual,
federally funded survey of teen drug use -- is an astonishing finding:
More 10th-graders now smoke marijuana than smoke cigarettes.
Strangely, in announcing the results, White House drug czar John
Walters failed to mention this evidence that our current drug policies
constitute an utter train wreck.

In the just-released survey, 13.8 percent of 10th-graders reported
smoking marijuana in the past 30 days (considered "current use" by
researchers), while just 12.3 percent smoked cigarettes. For 8th and
12th grades, cigarette use still exceeded marijuana, but the gap
narrowed to insignificance.

This year, current and past-year marijuana use increased for 8th- and
12th-graders and declined for 10th-graders, but none of the changes
were large or statistically significant. In contrast, current
cigarette smoking did drop significantly for 10th-graders. Changes for
most other drugs were marginal, except for a significant increase in
methamphetamine use among 10th-graders.

The Associated Press reported, "[T]he White House says the sustained
trendline is the key," and that is indeed true. Small fluctuations
from year to year prove little. We need to look at longer-term trends
to get any sense of whether our policies are having an impact.

Unfortunately, the long-term news is devastating for Walters and
others wedded to the current, prohibition-based approach to marijuana.

The new survey helpfully provides data going back to 1991, and since
then, the rate of current marijuana use has nearly doubled among
8th-graders, from 3.2 percent to 5.8 percent. Large increases also
occurred among 10th- and 12th-graders. During that same period,
cigarette use dropped like a rock, with current cigarette smoking
dropping from 14.3 percent to 6.8 percent among 8th-graders, and
dramatic drops in the older grades as well.

And that leaves us in the amazing situation of having as many teens
now smoking marijuana as cigarettes.

Bizarrely, Walters touts the new results as proof that his policies
are working, saying, "What we see here is a very good trend for the
youth of the country." Walters has been a rigid hardliner when it
comes to marijuana, insisting that even modest reforms in marijuana
laws affecting adults would lead to an explosion of use among youth.

In fact, what the data show is that prohibition for adults is neither
necessary nor effective at reducing use among kids. Last year over
775,000 Americans were arrested for possession of marijuana while zero
were arrested for possession of cigarettes. And yet it's teen
cigarette use that's dropping.

And we know why, or at least a big part of why. A report issued in
June by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services documented a
nearly 75 percent drop in illegal cigarette sales to minors from 1997
to 2007.

That sort of progress is possible because legal cigarette vendors are
regulated. They can and do face fines or even loss of their license to
operate if they sell to kids. But prohibition guarantees we have no
such control over marijuana.

Addicts commonly rationalize and excuse destructive behavior rather
than recognize that their addiction has gotten out of control. By that
standard, John Walters is an addict and his drug is
prohibition.

Walters will be gone soon with the rest of the Bush administration. We
can only hope that the incoming Obama administration will do an honest
appraisal of our current antidrug efforts and break Washington's
addiction to failed policies.