MEXICO'S DRUG WAR

When Obama Takes Office, He Must Deal With the Escalating Drug
Violence in Mexico.

Conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan will demand President
Obama's attention as soon as he takes office, but he also must make
time for the war on our border, where the Mexican government is
fighting narcotics traffickers. Drug violence has claimed more than
6,800 lives in Mexico in the last two years, and has seeped into
scores of U.S. cities that are marketplaces for illegal drugs. This
war is as ugly as the others, with beheadings, kidnappings and urban
shootouts that threaten the stability of Mexico and the national
security of the United States.

The toll is stunning, as documented by Times reporters: 1,300 dead in
Ciudad Juarez this year and 350 killed in Tijuana since September.
Drug corruption has reached the highest levels of law enforcement in
Mexico City, where the country's top counter-narcotics chief was
found to be on the payroll of traffickers. And in suburban San Diego,
alleged members of a Tijuana drug gang are accused of at least a
dozen murders and 20 kidnappings over three years.

Forbes magazine recently asked whether Mexico is a failed state,
given its inability to stem the flow of blood and drugs. The state is
weak, but not failed. After 70 years of one-party rule, Mexico's
executive and legislative branches are evolving, and the country is
trying to build an independent judiciary. The problem is that
President Felipe Calderon is fighting to retake control from the
cartels before ending corruption and impunity. Strong law enforcement
agencies and the rule of law have not been fully established.

The drug war is a bilateral problem. According to a recent report by
the Brookings Institution, an estimated 2,000 guns make their way
from the United States to Mexico every day. Drug consumption in the
U.S. has not declined significantly over the last quarter-century,
with a total of about 6 million users of heroin, cocaine and
methamphetamine. While up slightly since Calderon launched his
offensive last year, the street price of cocaine is nonetheless a
third of what it was in 1990, indicating a steady supply through the
Mexican smuggling routes.

It is in the U.S. interest that Calderon's war succeed, because a
failed state in Mexico would mean chaos on the border and more
immigration, among other consequences. Under the so-called Merida
Initiative, the United States is to provide $1.4 billion worth of
interdiction equipment and training to Mexico over three years.
Agreements were reached last week on the first delivery, which is
expected in January. This should be accompanied by close cooperation
between U.S. and Mexican law enforcement. The Obama administration
should then step up efforts to interdict southbound shipments of bulk
cash, chemicals for methamphetamine production and high-powered
weapons. Some weapons come from legal gun stores and shows, but
Mexican officials say others are black-market goods from abroad and,
apparently, from U.S. Army and National Guard depots. And finally,
the U.S. must seriously address drug consumption with funding for
prevention and treatment programs. Ultimately, demand drives drug trafficking.