Drug War Appears to Make Little Dent in Supply

Narcotics: Illegal crop production still exceeds demand, 2
studies contend. But others dispute findings.

By JUANITA DARLING, Times Staff Writer

SAN JOSE DEL GUAVIARE, ColombiaFor Oscar
Sena, the difference between growing the coca used to make
cocaine and stopping production of the illegal crop is clear:
"My son is second in his eighthgrade class," he said. "If it
weren't for coca, he would be the secondbest shoeshine boy
in Miraflores," Colombia's coca capital.
For thousands of South American farmers like Sena,
growing the raw material for cocaine is the only way they can
give their children a better life. So, even when cropdusters
spray their coca bushes with herbicide, the farmers replant
them.
According to a recent U.S. General Accounting Office
study, over the seven years that began in 1988, "farmers
planted new coca faster than existing crops were eradicated."
That U.S. report, along with a study by a Colombian
government drug advisor, supports with numbers what farmers
like Sena have been saying for years.
Despite costing billions of dollars and half a dozen
livesincluding that of one American pilotover seven years,
international drug eradication efforts have not reduced the
supply of narcotics, according to the reports.
"Illegal drugs still flood the United States," the GAO found.
"In fact," according to the U.S. government report,
"between 1988 and 1995, illegal drug cultivation and
drugrelated activities have increased throughout South
America, Mexico, the Caribbean, Southeast Asia and other
countries."
Further, the reports found that interdictionstopping drugs
before they reach U.S. ports and bordersthe other half of
Washington's international drug control strategy, has not
worked either. Still, $1.8 billion has been budgeted this year to
curb foreign drug production and to prevent narcotics from
entering the U.S.
"The report is not wellbalanced," U.S. Assistant Atty. Gen.
Stephen R. Colgate stated in a written reply to the GAO study,
adding that the work "does not provide an accurate or
complete overview of the international counternarcotics
strategy."
At the White House Office of National Drug Control
Policy, which oversees U.S. antinarcotics programs, Chief of
Staff Janet Christ criticized the report because "the discussion
of source country efforts does not fully reflect the many
successful accomplishments achieved despite the political
difficulties which remain."
The GAO report said that "although these efforts have
resulted in some successes, including the arrest of drug
traffickers and the eradication, seizure and disruption in the
transport of illegal drugs, they have not materially reduced the
availability of drugs."
A report by Sergio Uribe, planning director at a Colombian
drug eradication agency, agreed.
Both reports are based on U.S. government statistics.
Those numbers, the GAO found, show that the area under
coca cultivation rose 15% from 1988 to 1995, while poppy
acreage increased by onefourth.
Crops eradicated in one country are quickly substituted by
production in another. For example, while Laos cut poppy
production in half, Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, more
than took up the slack.
For that reason, it remains to be seen whether the world
cocaine market was affected by early indications that Peru's
coca acreage shrank in 1996.
Uribe suggested that the situation may be even more dire
than the GAO report indicated.
Despite the admitted increase in acreage, he said, coca
production has dropped 25% since 1988, according to U.S.
government figures. By his calculations, based on U.S. Drug
Enforcement Administration data, that would mean that yields
have dropped by as much as onethird.
But Uribe noted that the price and purity of cocaine sold in
U.S. cities have remained stablean indication that production
has not dropped. "We must either reconsider the law of supply
and demand . . . question the numbers and reevaluate the
current state of the industry or look for another explanation for
such strange market behavior," he said.
Even if the U.S. government is right and total potential
cocaine production was 780 tons in 1995, that is still far more
than is needed to keep U.S. users supplied with
narcoticseven after law enforcement confiscates a share, the
GAO reported. In 1995, about 280 tons of cocaine were
seized worldwide.
"The remaining amount was more than enough to meet U.S.
demand, which is estimated at about 300 metric tons per year,"
the report stated. It also found that even after 32 tons of heroin
were seized, production was still 17 times more than U.S.
demand.

Jim Rosenfield jnr@cinenet.net
tel: 3108360926 fax: 3108360592
Website > http://mall.turnpike.net/~jnr/jnr.htm