DRUG WAR APPEARS TO MAKE LITTLE DENT IN SUPPLY;
NARCOTICS: ILLEGAL CROP PRODUCTION STILL EXCEEDS DEMAND, 2 STUDIES CONTEND. BUT
OTHERS DISPUTE FINDINGS. by JUANITA DARLING, TIMES STAFF WRITER

For Oscar Sena, the difference between growing the coca
used to make cocaine and stopping production of the illegal
crop is clear: "My son is second in his eighthgrade
class," he said. "If it weren't for coca, he would be the
secondbest shoeshine boy in Miraflores," Colombia's coca
capital. For thousands of South American farmers like Sena,
growing the raw material for cocaine is the only way they
can give their children a better life. So, even when
cropdusters spray their coca bushes with herbicide, the
farmers replant them.

According to a recent U.S. General Accounting Office
study, over the seven years that began in 1988, "farmers
planted new coca faster than existing crops were
eradicated."

That U.S. report, along with a study by a Colombian
government drug advisor, supports with numbers what farmers
like Sena have been saying for years.

Despite costing billions of dollars and half a dozen
livesincluding that of one American pilotover seven
years, international drug eradication efforts have not
reduced the supply of narcotics, according to the reports.

"Illegal drugs still flood the United States," the GAO
found.

"In fact," according to the U.S. government report,
"between 1988 and 1995, illegal drug cultivation and
drugrelated activities have increased throughout South
America, Mexico, the Caribbean, Southeast Asia and other
countries." Further, the reports found that
interdictionstopping drugs before they reach U.S. ports
and bordersthe other half of Washington's international
drug control strategy, has not worked either. Still, $ 1.8
billion has been budgeted this year to curb foreign drug
production and to prevent narcotics from entering the U.S.

"The report is not wellbalanced," U.S. Assistant Atty.
Gen. Stephen R. Colgate stated in a written reply to the
GAO study, adding that the work "does not provide an
accurate or complete overview of the international
counternarcotics strategy."

At the White House Office of National Drug Control
Policy, which oversees U.S. antinarcotics programs, Chief
of Staff Janet Christ criticized the report because "the
discussion of source country efforts does not fully reflect
the many successful accomplishments achieved despite the
political difficulties which remain."

The GAO report said that "although these efforts have
resulted in some successes, including the arrest of drug
traffickers and the eradication, seizure and disruption in
the transport of illegal drugs, they have not materially
reduced the availability of drugs." A report by Sergio
Uribe, planning director at a Colombian drug eradication
agency, agreed.

Both reports are based on U.S. government statistics.
Those numbers, the GAO found, show that the area under coca
cultivation rose 15% from 1988 to 1995, while poppy acreage
increased by onefourth.

Crops eradicated in one country are quickly substituted
by production in another. For example, while Laos cut poppy
production in half, Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, more
than took up the slack.

For that reason, it remains to be seen whether the world
cocaine market was affected by early indications that
Peru's coca acreage shrank in 1996.

Uribe suggested that the situation may be even more dire
than the GAO report indicated.

Despite the admitted increase in acreage, he said, coca
production has dropped 25% since 1988, according to U.S.
government figures. By his calculations, based on U.S. Drug
Enforcement Administration data, that would mean that
yields have dropped by as much as onethird. But Uribe
noted that the price and purity of cocaine sold in U.S.
cities have remained stablean indication that production
has not dropped. "We must either reconsider the law of
supply and demand . . . question the numbers and reevaluate
the current state of the industry or look for another
explanation for such strange market behavior," he said.

Even if the U.S. government is right and total potential
cocaine production was 780 tons in 1995, that is still far
more than is needed to keep U.S. users supplied with
narcoticseven after law enforcement confiscates a share,
the GAO reported. In 1995, about 280 tons of cocaine were
seized worldwide.

"The remaining amount was more than enough to meet U.S.
demand, which is estimated at about 300 metric tons per
year," the report stated. It also found that even after 32
tons of heroin were seized, production was still 17 times
more than U.S. demand.

Copyright (c) 1997, Times Mirror Company