Can Colombia be saved?

It's the most violent nation on Earth with a level of human suffering on a
scale unmatched in the hemisphere

MEXICO CITY IN THE leadup to Colombia's recent municipal elections,
politicians and priests were murdered, international observers kidnapped
and hundreds of candidates frightened out of the race.

The newly appointed head of the Colombian armed forces, Gen. Manuel Jose
Bonett, narrowly escaped being blown up by a guerrilla bomb.

Turnout was generally low. Colombia's most powerful rebel groups the
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation
Army (ELN) had ordered Colombians to stay home to protest a ``bogus'' vote.

It was their strongest challenge to the government in more than 30 years of
a civil war that has created a level of human suffering in Colombia on a
scale unmatched in the hemisphere.

Yet, observers fear it's merely a bloody foretaste of what's in store in
next May's presidential elections.

Colombia appears to be disintegrating. It's the most violent country on
Earth, per capita. International reports describe a worsening situation in
which rights workers, union and church leaders and peace advocates are
being systematically murdered.

``We are extremely worried about Colombia,'' says Bill Fairbairn, from the
Torontobased InterChurch Committee on Human Rights in Latin America.
``All signs indicate the civil war is only going to be intensified.''

Both Amnesty International and the United Nations report 1 million people
have been displaced by the fighting.

``Just what do we have to do to stay alive?'' was the title of the latest
Amnesty report, released Oct. 1.

``In the vast majority of cases, displacement is not a casual, sporadic or
inevitable byproduct of counterinsurgency operations,'' it says. ``It is a
critical tool of the armed forces and their paramilitary allies.''

Essentially, there are three elements in Colombia's civil war:

The rebels.

The armed forces.

The paramilitary groups who operate, for the most part, in league with the
army. A series of recent developments suggests the situation could
deteriorate by next spring's elections. They include:

President Ernesto Samper has become increasingly irrelevant.

He's fighting to hold on to his job. Washington accuses Samper of using
cocaine cartel money in his political campaigns and has decertified
Colombia as an ally in the international fight against drugs. That action
by Congress has resulted in decreasing investment and Colombia's status as
an international pariah state. If he can hang on until May his stated aim
Samper will consider himself a winner. But his weak position means his
government carries no weight as a force for peace in the upcoming
presidential campaign.

As Samper's strength has declined, the power of the army has increased.

Army leaders essentially run a separate state. When Samper ordered the
armed forces to withdraw from the central state of Meta earlier this year,
thencommander Harold Bedoya refused. He later resigned after mocking the
government for agreeing to rebel demands for a prisoner exchange.

``The weak civilian government is being bypassed entirely and that's a very
dangerous sign in Latin America,'' says Fairbairn.

Other Colombia watchers have begun to express private fears of a coup. They
say the army would rationalize to the world that military leadership is the
only alternative in the country.

Despite protests from human rights groups, the United States has decided to
sell $50 millionworth of military equipment to Colombia. The money would
buy UH1H Huey helicopters, C26 surveillance planes, weaponry and ammunition.

In Bogota last week, U.S. drug policy czar Barry McCaffrey promised the
money, expected to be only a first instalment, is contingent on respect for
civilian human rights by the army.

``But it's impossible to tell which army divisions are involved in human
rights abuses and which aren't,'' says Suzanne Rumsey, also with the
InterChurch Committee. She calls the U.S. sale ``particularly cynical,''
considering Colombia was decertified as a ``drugfighting ally.''

Human rights groups fear the arms sale means a higher civilian death toll.
Countless reports have condemned the Colombian army, including its current
leaders, for massive human rights abuses against the civilian population.

There are fears the weapons sale could increase the level of fighting.
McCaffrey stressed the weaponry would be used to fight drugdealing
guerrillas as part of the U.S. war on drugs. He made a distinction between
narcoguerrillas and other rebels.

``We are not taking part in counterguerrilla operations,'' says McCaffrey.

But the Colombian army makes no distinctions among rebel groups. ``It's the
same organization and everyone is responsible,'' Bonett told the New York
Times. ``You can't say this guerrilla front is good and this one is bad.''

Canadian groups that oppose the U.S. decision to sell arms to Colombia also
have been highly critical of the sale of Canadian helicopters to Colombia
two years ago.

Essentially, there has been no condemnation of paramilitary groups who
commit atrocities against civilians. Many reports have documented the
complicity of the army in barbarism. In June, for example, The Star
documented how paramilitary forces drove out thousands of northern refugees
whose villages had first been bombed by the Colombian air force.

``Unless the paramilitary groups can be stopped, the war will become even
more dirty and more dangerous,'' says Eduardo Pizarro, a professor at the
National University of Colombia.

``The monitoring of human rights groups is a positive step in our country.
But we need condemnation of the paramilitary groups. If that is not done,
there is less hope for Colombia.''