Andean Coca Farming Declined in '97

U.S. DATA SHOW CULTIVATION OF COCAINE'S RAW MATERIAL ROSE IN COLOMBIA

U.S. government figures show that the cultivation in Andean countries of
coca, the raw material used to make cocaine, dropped dramatically in 1997.
But cultivation in Colombia increased sharply, virtually ensuring that the
nation will continue to be treated as a pariah state.

This is the second year that coca production has fallen overall, and it is
the largest overall decline ever. While production fell dramatically in
Peru and modestly in Bolivia, it increased in Colombia, according to the
recently compiled figures.

U.S. officials said they find the net reduction encouraging and hope it
will reduce the supply of cocaine on U.S. streets.

The news was tempered by indications that Colombian drug cartels are
already adjusting their strategy to supplement any shortfall in raw
material by sharply increasing coca production. And, law enforcement
officials cautioned, the drug cartels have tons of cocaine stashed in
Colombia, Mexico and across the Caribbean, meaning cocaine supplies on the
streets would not immediately diminish.

Colombia, where 80 percent of the world's cocaine is produced, increased
coca production by an estimated 10 percent, according to sources familiar
with the data. That would make Colombia, which has seen coca production
grow dramatically in each of the past three years, the world's largest
producer of the coca leaf.

According to the estimates, Colombian coca production increased from about
170,700 acres in 1996 to 188,000 acres in 1997. In 1995, production was
estimated at 127,000 acres.

Barry R. McCaffrey, the Clinton administration's drug policy director,
confirmed the figures, but declined to address the Colombian data. However,
he said that Peru had achieved "remarkable success in its coca reduction
program." He said he found "the progress in Bolivia encouraging," and said
the new government of President Hugo Banzer had made a "promising start"
toward the goal of eradicating illegal coca production within five years.

Crop figures, obtained from Central Intelligence Agency overflights and
satellite images of the coca-growing regions of Peru, Bolivia and Colombia,
are given to law enforcement officials and the State Department every
January. The Washington Post obtained the figures, compiled last week, from
three agencies involved in analyzing the content of the CIA's information.

The data play a key role in determining which countries are certified
annually by the United States as fully cooperating in the counter-drug
efforts. Countries that are not certified lose U.S. aid and commercial
benefits.

While the certification decisions are usually announced on March 1, this
year's announcement, at least for Latin American nations, is expected about
Feb. 15. U.S. officials said the earlier announcement is planned so the
process, widely detested in Latin America, does not become the focus of an
April summit in Santiago, Chile, which President Clinton is scheduled to
attend.

Colombia has been decertified the past two years, and the government of
President Ernesto Samper has been treated as a virtual pariah, being lumped
with states such as Nigeria, Syria and Afghanistan.

There is evidence that suggests Samper received $6 million from drug
traffickers for his 1994 presidential campaign. He has denied the charge.

A senior administration official said the data "virtually guarantees
Colombia will not be certified. It takes Peru and Bolivia out of the
spotlight, but really hurts Colombia."

The figures show Peru, the leading coca producer for the past 20 years,
made the most dramatic progress, reducing coca plantations by 27 percent,
from about 240,000 acres to 175,000 acres. The reduction comes on top of a
18 percent drop in 1996.

Not all of the reduction was due to eradication efforts. In recent years a
rare fungus has appeared in several coca-growing areas, attacking and
killing the coca plant.

In Bolivia, historically the second-largest coca producer, cultivation
dropped about 5 percent, from about 122,000 acres in 1996 to 116,500 acres
in 1997, the figures show.

According to the State Department, the coca grown in Peru could produce up
to 325 metric tons of cocaine, while the coca grown in Bolivia could
produce up to 215 metric tons of the drug.

Most of the coca, a shrub that is about three feet tall that yields up to
three harvests a year, is grown by farmers in impoverished, semi-tropical
regions of Peru and Bolivia, where coca growing and processing have been
far more lucrative enterprises than growing traditional crops. The coca
leaf is processed into raw cocaine base, which is then shipped to Colombia,
where it is refined into cocaine hydrochloride, the product sold on the
streets.

Fidel Cano, a spokesman for the Colombian Embassy in Washington, said he
fears the United States is underreporting the 1997 figures as, he said, it
did in 1996.

Cano said Colombian police figures showed that 109,000 acres of coca had
been subjected to aerial spraying for eradication in 1997 and that the
spraying was effective in killing about 73 percent of the plants.

"In 1996 the evaluation did not take into account eradication efforts in
the last part of the year," Cano said. "We are afraid the same thing is
happening this year. Our evaluation is that the eradication efforts this
year in Colombia have been excellent."

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