SPECULATION INTENSE ABOUT NEW MEXICAN DRUG LORD

MEXICO CITY -- Ever since authorities reported last year that Mexico's most
influential drug trafficker, Amado Carrillo Fuentes, had died during
surgery, American and Mexican anti-drug agencies have been monitoring the
underworld for signs of a successor.

On Thursday, a U.S. official said that one trafficker, Rafael Munoz
Talavera, a longtime smuggler with links in the same cartel, has emerged as
a leader in the eight-month battle to fill the leadership vacuum caused by
Carrillo's death.

"If anybody is going to take over, it's Rafael Munoz Talavera," the U.S.
official said. "He's a very capable trafficker and he's out there trying to
do alliances," the official said.

Officials from both countries say that nobody has yet accumulated the
wealth and influence enjoyed by Carrillo, a billionaire who not only
controlled the cartel based in Ciudad Juarez, across from El Paso, Texas,
but also acted as a senior broker, coordinating narcotics initiatives by
scores of independent traffickers in Mexico and Colombia.

But the U.S. official said that Munoz has gained an advantage over his
rivals. The official's statements marked the second time in two months that
Munoz has been publicly described as an emerging successor to Carrillo.

In December, after several Mexican newspapers cited U.S. and Mexican
officials to announce that he had taken over leadership of the Juarez
cartel, Munoz bought paid advertisements in Juarez newspapers to deny those
reports. He described himself in those advertisements as a "simple,
hard-working man."

U.S. and Mexican officials have also described other traffickers as
potential successors to Carrillo. They include Vicente Carrillo, who is
Carrillo's 35-year-old brother, and Juan Esparragoza Moreno, 49, another
top aide to Amado Carrillo.

But U.S. officials said in recent interviews that events have shown that
Vicente Carillo lacks leadership skills. On Thursday, the U.S. official
said that Esparragoza "has fallen off the radar screen."

"He's out there, trafficking in cocaine and methamphetamines," the official
said of Esparragoza. "But his move to become the head of the Juarez cartel
has fallen off the tracks."

The Arellano Felix family of Tijuana dominates drug activities in northwest
Mexico. But the U.S. official said that the Arellanos have been unable to
increase their influence because recent prosecution efforts have been
intense and "they're spending a lot of time just trying to avoid capture."

The official's statements go considerably further than comments made last
week by Mariano Herran Salvatti, Mexico's drug czar.

"No person has moved out front right now," Herran said. Several traffickers
have aspired to control the cartel, "but this has not happened," he said.

U.S. authorities in 1989 accused Munoz, who is about 46, of smuggling 21
tons of cocaine discovered that year in a Los Angeles warehouse, the
largest drug seizure ever. After he was arrested and tried in Mexico on
those charges, Munoz was acquitted and released from prison in 1996.

While Munoz was in jail, Carrillo not only took over the cartel but also
began coordinating the work of independent traffickers. "Munoz Talavera has
stepped in and filled this role," the U.S. official said.

Copyright 1998 The New York Times Company