NEW SENTENCING LAW MAY NOT CURB CRIME, TASK FORCE IS TOLD

OKLAHOMA CITY -- Oklahomans who expect a major drop in crime after a new
truth-in-sentencing law takes effect July 1 and inmates begin serving much
longer sentences may be disappointed, if history is any guide.

Information presented to a joint legislative task force Wednesday fails to
show any decrease in crime, even though Oklahoma is incarcerating nearly
five times the number of inmates it did 20 years ago.

A joint task force is gathering information on the impact of truth in
sentencing before revising the law. Passed last year, the law mandates that
violent criminals serve 85 percent of their sentences and nonviolent
offenders serve 75 percent of their sentences before being eligible for
parole.

Some lawmakers are concerned about the estimated cost of the new law,
however, and wonder whether the benefits are worth it. It is estimated that
a bill to revise the truth-in-sentencing law could cost taxpayers nearly $1
billion over the next 10 years.

Information presented to the task force Wednesday by Department of
Corrections statistician Bill Chown shows that the number of murders in
Oklahoma have remained almost constant for the past 20 years -- at an
average of 247 a year -- even though the number of incarcerations during
that period has more than quadrupled.

There also was no correlation between increased incarceration and the
number of arrests annually -- one way of determining the rise or fall of
crime. From 1980 to 1996, while the state's prison population was
increasing from about 4,500 to nearly 20,000, the number of total arrests
in the state remained constant at approximately 150,000 a year.

The number of index crimes, another way of measuring the most serious
crimes, also remained constant at around 5,500 per 100,000 population
annually from 1988 to 1996, despite the huge increase in the prison
population.

One category did shoot up over the past two decades -- drug-related crime.
In 1980, there were 7,812 drug arrests. In 1996, the number of arrests
totaled 12,756.

The number of incarcerations has kept pace. In 1980, there were 150 people
incarcerated for drug crimes. In 1997, the number sent to prison for drug
crimes was 2,158.

Mike Connelly of the Oklahoma Criminal Justice Research Center said there
are some studies showing increased incarceration has an impact in some
areas, including serial rape and other serial crimes.

Connelly said incarceration also affects murder in larger urban centers
because of the high number of murders related to drugs.

And he said there are indications that there may be some impact on arson
and burglary, although action other than incarceration might have the same
effect.

In answer to a question from Rep. Fred Morgan, R-Oklahoma City, Chown said
his models do not take into consideration the cost in anguish to crime
victims and society but only the cost of incarceration.

And Sen. Howard Hendrick, R-Bethany, pointed out it is impossible to tell
what the crime rate might have been if more people weren't being locked up,
even though crime rates apparently didn't go down.

Chown conceded he could not guarantee the murder rate would stay at 247 a
year, if there was a major reduction in the number of inmates incarcerated.

Chown pointed out, however, that 80 percent of the inmates who come into
prison each year are new incarcerations.

He said "incapacitation,'' taking criminals off the street and locking them
up, wouldn't prevent their crimes because most have never been to prison
when their crimes are committed.