SMOKE AND MIRRORS IN THE TOBACCO CRUSADE

If you want to support the National Policy and Youth Smoking Reduction Act
being crafted in Washington these days, try not to think too hard.

Don't ask yourself whether the legislation really will "reduce teen smoking
in America," as President Clinton said in a speech last week.

Don't look at the rise in teen smoking, despite campaigns against the
lethal habit. Teen smoking has increased every year since Clinton became
president and declared war on the nasty habit among teens. I don't blame
Clinton for the rise, but considering the lip service he has given to this
cause - with the result that the number of high school seniors who smoke
rose from 17.2 percent in 1992 to 22.2 percent in 1996 - I hardly expect
him to deliver the cure.

Don't ask yourself who really pays the tax.

Tobacco-bill boosters say that tobacco companies will have to pay $516
billion in higher taxes - or more if Washington decides to outdo a measure
pushed through by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). Believe them. Forget that
it's really smokers who will pay the tab.

Forget that most smokers are poor or lower-middle class. (The nonpartisan
Tax Foundation estimates that 59 percent of the tax boost would be paid by
people earning less than $35,000 a year, 34 percent by people who earn
under $15,000. The average single smoker will pay $599 more annually in
taxes by 2003 if the McCain bill becomes law. But that is an unpleasant
fact, and what are unpleasant facts compared to good intentions?)

Don't ask whether the tobacco tax is a regressive tax that burdens (mostly
poor) people already punished enough by tobacco companies. Don't ask if
this tax increase is another case of kicking the victim.

Don't ask why Washington would raise cigarette taxes to reduce teen
consumption when - according to the Tax Foundation - teens are responsible
for only 2 percent of U.S. cigarette consumption.

Don't wonder which industry - alcohol, cars" - politicians will target
after they've squeezed smokers dry. Most pols want to spend more tax
dollars but understand they can't raise taxes in general. They need
vilified industries if they want to appease their big spending habits.
Today cigarettes, tomorrow alcohol and fast-food. Or maybe gasoline because
it causes teen car accidents.

Whatever it is, expect the call for greater taxes to be an issue not of
spending but of making America safer for The Children.

Don't ask if the higher tax - $1.10 per pack - would lead to bootlegging.
The answer is yes.

Don't wonder why President Clinton won't enumerate exactly how much more
the Republican Congress should add to the tobacco tax bite. He doesn't
care. He only wants to make Republicans look soft on tobacco.

Don't question whether an increased tax burden actually will reduce
consumption or if it will simply pinch smokers. Don't think of countries
like France, where the average tax per pack is $2.61 - and consumption is
above 40 percent. If bill boosters say a tax hike will decrease smoking,
you shouldn't question them.

The important thing is that Washington, D.C., pols can look good by
supporting as big a tax - on the evil tobacco companies - as possible. It
doesn't matter if the tax reduces teen smoking, as advertised. The
important thing is that the measure purports to help kids. Therefore, it
would be wrong to question any aspect of it.

Wake up America! Before we reach the point of no return, wake up!