GOP LEADERS WEAKEN CHANCES FOR TOBACCO LAW

With President Clinton and House Republicans engaged in a bitter partisan
fight, chances of a comprehensive tobacco bill passing Congress have
suddenly faded.

After losing the first round, Big Tobacco has won the second. The question
now is whether more fighting over the next few months will change the
outcome.

The Senate Commerce Committee overwhelmingly approved a tough tobacco bill
on April 1, and the measure's supporters had hoped Congress would crack
down on teen smoking, raise the price of cigarettes a lot, extract billions
more from tobacco firms and regulate nicotine as a drug.

Now, Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and Sen. Don Nickles
(R-Okla.), his assistant, want legislation that would focus primarily on
teen smoking. Also, House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) has begun to
criticize the more comprehensive Senate bill.

The measure, which is being pushed chiefly by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.),
chairman of the Commerce panel, was passed in a climate in which many
members of both parties were angry that according to tobacco companies'
internal documents, they had targeted teenage smokers.

The House Commerce Committee on Wednesday released nearly 39,000 cigarette
company documents showing, in part, that some companies destroyed or
concealed damaging health research.

For now, though, the momentum has shifted in favor of the tobacco companies.

Gingrich is no fan of the $1.10 per pack cigarette tax increase in the bill
and also dislikes a provision that would give the Food and Drug
Administration wide powers to regulate tobacco.

The speaker said he would support a price increase for cigarettes if that
didn't create an underground market and if the revenue were used to cut
taxes for Americans. The White House wants to use money from the tobacco
deal to expand child-care programs and pay for other initiatives.

"We are prepared to pass an anti-smoking bill," Gingrich said. "Now, does
the president want to stop kids from smoking, or does he want a smokescreen
behind which he gets higher taxes, bigger bureaucracy and bigger
government?"

Gingrich's opposition to the bill, which he expressed for the first time
earlier in the week, came after the tobacco companies launched a campaign
against the measure. Clinton and Democrats accused the speaker and his
lieutenants of doing the bidding of the tobacco companies.

The House is preparing a scaled-down tobacco bill that would be folded into
an anti-drug measure, but details likely will be held up until after the
Senate acts.

Gingrich has said a tobacco bill eventually will pass Congress but would
look nothing like the McCain measure. While being accused of supporting the
industry wholeheartedly, Gingrich has said he does not favor granting
tobacco companies full or limited protection from liability lawsuits.

The McCain bill would cap industry liability from lawsuits each year. The
industry had insisted on more sweeping protection as the price for
cooperating with the government in stopping its advertising to youthful
smokers.

Senate Democratic Leader Thomas Daschle (D-S.D.) said he expected the
Senate to approve a tobacco bill along the lines of the Commerce Committee
measure.

"It's really important that we show the House we can do it and soon," he
said, adding that the bill had a "much better than 50-50 chance" of passing
the Senate.

As the White House did on Tuesday, Daschle attacked Gingrich and House
Republicans, saying the evidence was "overwhelming" that the House GOP had
joined the tobacco companies in a coordinated offensive against the McCain
bill.

A lot of bipartisan steam has built up behind the McCain measure, creating
potential problems for the GOP leadership in the Senate if they try to
narrow the bill's scope. One tool that Lott possesses--and uses with great
effect--is the power of delay.

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), a staunch advocate of anti-smoking legislation,
said that if the Senate does not approve a comprehensive tobacco bill by
Memorial Day, he doubts Congress will have the time to get a bill through
this year.

"I haven't given up yet," Durbin said. "But I must admit the one-two punch
of the tobacco industry and Newt Gingrich makes this much more difficult."
If the bill is scaled back too much, Durbin said, he would recommend a
presidential veto.

He said Republicans underestimate the political effect of the tobacco issue
on the midterm elections. While the GOP has found tobacco industry
contributions to be lucrative, the party could be vulnerable to charges
that it does the industry's bidding if no legislation is approved.

The bill is attractive to lawmakers in both parties because it provides a
bonanza of money for new programs or tax cuts. The original settlement,
signed a year ago, would provide $368.5 billion over 25 years. The McCain
bill raised this amount to $510 billion. Creating such a huge pot of money
for congressional allocation may prove too much to resist.

Even though the industry has backed out of the settlement, many members of
Congress believe they can go ahead with legislation. But without the
industry's cooperation on key points, enforcing a comprehensive bill could
be difficult.

The companies could, for instance, challenge a bill in court if they are
forced to limit advertising.