WARFARE OVER TOBACCO BILL COULD MAKE IT OR BREAK IT

WASHINGTON -- Remember Bob Dole's gaffe on the presidential campaign trail,
when he questioned whether tobacco was addictive? Republicans vowed they
would not fall into that trap a second time.

But lately House Republican leaders have opened themselves up to charges by
Democrats that they are tone-deaf on tobacco once again. Speaker Newt
Gingrich told a crowd at a fund-raiser last week that teen-age smoking "has
nothing to do with Joe Camel," and instead blamed Hollywood. His second in
command, Rep. Dick Armey of Texas, said that he, just like the speaker, did
not consider comprehensive tobacco legislation under consideration by the
Senate "the appropriate bill."

Asked at his weekly news conference if he could explain the reason for his
opposition, Armey said, "No, I can't." When asked why not, Armey, the House
majority leader, answered, "Because I don't want to." Democrats, who are
seeking to take back the House, were quick to pounce. They showed up on the
Capitol lawn with a poster of a doctored Joe Camel advertisement that had
Gingrich's face superimposed over that of the highly recognizable
dromedary. "Smokin' Newt and the Hard Pack," said the headline. "We are
prepared to make this a political issue in the fall," said Rep. Vic Fazio,
D-Calif., "if the Republicans fail in their responsibilities as the leaders
of this institution."

The give-and-take highlights how the quest for comprehensive tobacco
legislation has become enmeshed in election year politics, with no one sure
whether the political warfare will propel comprehensive legislation crafted
by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., or help kill it. The measure requires tobacco
companies to pay $516 billion over 25 years and raises the price of
cigarettes by $1.10 a pack by 2003.

This is an issue that puts Republicans in a particular bind. When President
Clinton chose a crusade against tobacco and teen-age smoking designed to
appeal to suburban mothers from swing districts in 1996, he caught Dole
flat-footed.

House Republicans, to be sure, do not want to look insensitive to teen-age
smoking. But the legislation taking shape in the Senate is offensive to
conservatives who do not like government regulation of business or new
taxes, in this case on cigarettes.

"You're talking about levying a tax on people, in many instances poor
people to pay for other things," said Rep. Robert Livingston, R-La. "I
don't think that's what we as Republicans were elected to do."

By building their majority in the House by taking the South away from the
Democrats, Republicans have taken on more of the problems, and must weigh
the concerns, of the tobacco states. The Republican Party has thrived on
tobacco money, receiving far more in donations from the industry than the
Democrats. But congressional Democrats, who hope to wield tobacco against
the Republicans in the fall, acknowledge that even their own internal
polling shows that public attitudes toward tobacco can be complex.
Americans are overwhelmingly opposed to teen-age smoking and to the tobacco
companies, but they also dislike cigarette taxes, pollsters say. "It's
clear that people want a policy that is about youth smoking rather than
about just raising revenue," said Geoffrey Garin, a Democratic pollster.
After a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll came out last week showing that
37 percent of the public considers proposed tobacco legislation too tough
and only 32 percent view it as about right, Gingrich circulated a letter to
Republican House members.

"What these results show is that the American people don't want us to pass
just any bill on tobacco," he wrote. "They want us to pass the right bill
to protect our children from drugs and tobacco."

The tobacco industry is seeking to turn public sentiment further against
McCain's bill by framing the debate with advertisements in newspapers and a
television advertising campaign. "Washington is going haywire again, and
pursuing its old agenda of tax and spend, without worrying about the
consequences," says one of the industry print advertisements, which is
being amplified by two 30-second television spots running in 40 markets.
Clinton, in contrast, is trying to keep the debate focused on protecting
teen-agers. "Both policy-wise and public communication-wise this settlement
is about closing the chapter on what the industry has done over the last
couple of decades in targeting children," said Rahm Emanuel, Clinton's
senior adviser.

Sen. Trent Lott of Mississippi, the majority leader, has said he plans to
bring the McCain bill to the floor.

In this environment, House Republicans believe they will be able to protect
themselves in the fall campaigns by passing a series of anti-smoking bills
that stop short of McCain's measure, which also provides new authority to
the Food and Drug Administration to regulate nicotine. Gingrich said last
week that he was prepared to significantly raise the price of cigarettes
"with two conditions" -- that the price increase not lead to a black market
in cigarettes and that "the tax increase be returned to the American people
in a tax cut preferably related to health issues." Many Democrats in
contrast want a measure that is tougher on tobacco than McCain's bill. That
creates a complex balancing act and could mean that Clinton will have to
decide what he wants more: tobacco legislation or a campaign issue.

Last week he seemed to be seeking both. Even as he and Vice President Al
Gore assailed the Republicans on tobacco on two successive days, the White
House pursued quiet negotiations to produce a bill. Democrats for their
part are mapping out their line of attack for the midterm elections -- and
pointing to the Republicans' history of taking millions of dollars in
contributions from the tobacco industry. "Whatever complexity there is to
public opinion on this question there is no political virtue to being on
the side of the tobacco companies," Garin said. "I guess we'll end up
hearing a lot about the Republicans' tobacco money in the fall."