TOBACCO BILL SURVIVES SENATE BUT STILL FACES HOUSE

The national tobacco bill has survived a series of near-death experiences
and this week moved a long way toward approval in the Senate. But it faces
a perilous gantlet - from hostile House Republicans to the simple passage
of time - that threatens enactment before the 105th Congress adjourns this
fall.

Only a few days after Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., said the
bill was "dead in the water," the Senate - struggling to keep from
collapsing under the weight of its own disarray - broke a stubborn
stalemate by adding a big election-year tax cut.

A Few Problems Left

By the end of this past week, a huge list of potentially lethal problems
had been whittled to just a few, including a fight over competing proposals
to compensate tobacco farmers and a battery of amendments drafted by
conservative Republicans intent on sinking the bill.

The bill has been toughened in some respects and weakened in others, but
despite some misgivings about its most recent turns, public health
advocates are still satisfied that its passage would be a historic leap in
the fight against underage smoking.

"What a difference a week makes," Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., said last
week as he and several other key supporters predicted that the measure
would win Senate approval soon.

Even some opponents conceded that eventual approval is likely.

"Probably in despair, (the Senate) will do whatever it has to to get a bill
out," said Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah.

Time is short, and the bill's opponents have been counting delay as a major
weapon. Much may depend on whether the Senate, which already has spent
nearly three weeks on the bill, can avoid further protracted delays.

One of the keys is Lott. With his long and close ties to the conservatives
who dominate the Republican side of the Senate, he is expected by
associates to give the bill's critics ample time for substantive
amendments. But if the bill is to move, he eventually would have to crack
down on the delaying tactics of his allies by forcing it to a vote, which
will take 60 votes.

Pressure is building on Lott to bring the debate to a close. It comes not
only from Democrats and other backers of the measure but also from the
backlog of other business, including defense, higher education and spending
bills for the next fiscal year that must be passed shortly to avoid being
trampled in the rush to adjournment. Only 12 weeks of work time remain
before the targeted Oct. 9 adjournment.

Lott opposed Democratic efforts to force action this week but did not rule
out the possibility of doing so on his own at another time.

Those following the bill have found Lott's intentions impossible to read.
The majority leader has played an enigmatic role throughout the debate.
With a brother-in-law who participated as a lawyer in settlement
negotiations with cigarette makers, he has voted "present" on most key
amendments. But, as majority leader, he plays a critical role in moving all
legislation, including scheduling, deal-making and massaging egos, and the
tobacco bill is no exception.

Lott has made no secret of the fact that he believes the bill taxes and
spends too much. But, according to many colleagues, he has worked behind
the scenes to keep it from falling apart - an outcome that could damage
Republican candidates in this fall's elections and tarnish his own
reputation for keeping the trains running on time.

The Senate bill, sponsored by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., is an ambitious
vehicle that would impose the largest price increase ever on cigarettes -
$1.10 per-pack over the next five years - and broad restrictions on a $50
billion industry once considered politically invincible. As conservatives
and anti-smoking forces have amended it, the measure has become a strange
amalgam that now attacks underage smoking, illegal drug use and the
so-called "marriage penalty" in the tax code.

Supporters have misgivings about the current product, but many key senators
are looking for those problems to be negotiated away in an ultimate
House-Senate conference, with heavy input from the White House.

"We'll have plenty of leverage in conference, and you can't forget that
this remains an extraordinarily tough tobacco bill," an administration
official said last week.

What Worries Critics

This is precisely what worries some of the bill's critics, who, according
to Sen. Paul Coverdell, R-Ga., are increasingly apprehensive about what may
come out of a conference.

But if there are huge differences between House and Senate versions,
consensus may be difficult to achieve - and take longer than the pre-shrunk
election-year schedule allows.

The House has not even begun to tackle the issue. House GOP leaders, who
have called the Senate bill a big tax-and-spend measure, are pushing for a
far narrower approach, focused tightly on teenage smoking and drug use.

A bipartisan bill similar to McCain's has also been introduced and could
gain support from Republican moderates.

The fact that the Senate bill has survived so many close calls for so many
days with so much intact leads many to believe it will eventually pass -
but not without further struggle.

"This is a textbook case in the use of every legislative trick in the
book," said Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., one of the bill's staunchest
supporters. Opponents have tried to talk it to death, amend it to death,
use tactical maneuvers and use the clock . . . You've seen it all, and
you'll probably see more before we're done."

A small group of conservatives, including Majority Whip Don Nickles,
R-Okla., essentially Lott's deputy, remain determined to derail the
measure, despite the tax cut and drug-prevention amendment that were
attached at their urging. Asked last week whether the bill was going to
live or die, Nickles raised his arms rifle-like and joked, "I'll get my
gun."

What Worries Supporters

The bill's supporters are even more worried about the split over how to
help tobacco farmers, which has bubbled beneath the surface for weeks. One
proposal, by Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., would pay farmers $18 billion over
three years and end the government support program. The other, sponsored by
Sens. Ernest Hollings, D-S.C., and Wendell Ford, D-Ky., would cost less and
keep the program alive.

The three senators have been unable to reach a compromise, and Ford said he
has as many as 70 amendments ready to swamp the bill if his proposal does
not succeed.

Each day, the measure's vulnerability is emphasized. While the bill's
proponents reluctantly accepted the tax cut at the insistence of
Republicans, its inclusion has angered other supporters. Public health
groups and the National Governors Association are concerned that billions
in tobacco revenues, destined for state coffers and anti-smoking programs,
have been diverted to pay for the tax cut.