TRANSCRIPT OF PRESS BRIEFING BY TRAVIS ON RADIO ADDRESS

[Continued from Part 1]

Let's consider now how drug epidemics can vary by geographic location and
subpopulation and how local knowledge of substance abuse trends can be
useful for crafting an intervention. Methamphetamine remains a problem
primarily in the western United States. The green bars that you see are
almost exclusively found on the left side of the map, and the green bars
represent methamphetamine.

San Diego, where nearly 40 percent of the adult males and females combined
tested positive for methamphetamine, has been extraordinarily hard hit. In
fact, methamphetamine is now the most prevalent drug among arrestees in San
Diego, surpassing that of both cocaine and marijuana.

City and county leaders in San Diego responded to this problem by
developing a cross-agency task force to address methamphetamine in their
community. The ADAM data were a critical component to the development of
this response and to monitoring ongoing progress.

Other sites with substantial fractions of arrestees testing positive for
meth include San Jose at about 18 percent, Portland and Phoenix at about 16
percent, and Omaha at 10 percent. These levels are near or exceed the
previous peaks recorded in 1994 and 1995. In addition, methamphetamine
remains primarily a problem among white arrestees and among female
arrestees. There are some sites where the overall methamphetamine rate is
very low, but the level among whites and among females has become notable,
including Atlanta, where six percent; Chicago, where three percent; and St.
Louis, where three percent of the whites have tested positive for
methamphetamine.

Since meth use is found primarily among whites and females, these are
examples of subpopulations that must be carefully monitored to assess the
geographic spread of a drug problem both within and across communities.

In summary, these findings in this chart suggest that drug use patterns
among arrestees are diverse and locally specific. These findings reinforce
the need to be able to monitor the drug use problems at the local level, to
provide policymakers with specific guidance about how their programs and
interventions are succeeding. Over the coming years, we will have the
opportunity to test for a wider range of substances at our sites, and in
certain subpopulations. And with these advances, we will improve our
ability to help communities understand their specific drug problems and
consequently, to develop appropriate community-specific responses.

Thank you.

Q The release here says that the study shows that in 9 of 23 cities, the
number of arrestees testing positive remain the same or decrease. So, in
the majority, in other words, the testing is increasing. Secondly, how
would you compare the increase in opiate testing with the decrease in
cocaine? I mean, are these offsetting each other -- is the problem still
the same level, just different drugs?

MR. TRAVIS: The first comment you made is sort of the overall number of
individual who test positive, is that up or down? There's some small number
- -- nine cities where, overall, that number is down. The rest is -- or
holding constant -- the rest is up. So we measure for any drug that's in
the system, and so we -- that finding looks at any or any multiple, of
drugs. So the general statement is that there's some that are going up and
some that are going down in terms of any drug.

The second question is about substitution effects, whether there are
changes from one population that is at one point in time using drug A to
drug B is complicated, because we find that with some drugs -- for example,
the methamphetamine numbers that we are reporting that is, in fact, a very
different population, so that the presence of methamphetamine, we're
finding, is more often in whites and more often in females than for cocaine
or heroin or other drugs. There's clearly some multiple drug use, there is
clearly some substitution -- we don't know exactly how much -- but overall,
we're finding differences in the populations that are testing positive for
different drugs.

Q But it's not possible to conclude in this data whether the drug problem
is getting worse or better in terms of --

MR. TRAVIS: I think the clear implication of the ADAM report is that there
are different drug problems; they're different by type of drug and they're
different by locality. If you look at the use of cocaine, particularly
crack cocaine, this is clearly an area where there has been significant
change in a positive direction in a large number of particularly large
cities across the country with very beneficial effects.

The numbers that we show in Manhattan, for example, where, as we know,
there is a near miracle in terms of crime reduction there, show that the
levels of crack use have been going down particularly in the younger
population, and our report shows that the older population is now becoming
the more predominant drug using population for crack cocaine.

On the other hand, the meth problem is going in a direction that causes
concern. So the announcement today of assistance for local law enforcement
is bringing some much-needed relief to those police agencies because the
methamphetamine problem is going up. So different drug problems in
different communities.

Q Since fads and trends often start in the west and go east, including fads
and trends in drugs, should there be a national concern about meth usage in
the rest of the country since it is so high in places like San Diego now?

MR. TRAVIS: We're not showing levels of methamphetamine use in the eastern
cities; we are showing it in some of the midwestern cities. I'll have to
ask Jack whether it's gone up in those midwestern cities or not.

Q Well, he said it was very high in San Diego, for instance.

MR. TRAVIS: It's clearly very high, disproportionately high in the western,
southwestern cities where we're testing.

Q Since these trends often move from west to east, I'm asking you is, is
there concern about meth gaining in popularity in other cities from west to
east.

MR. TRAVIS: The concern that we hear from law enforcement and from
communities around the country is both that concern, that it's moving from
where it's now, in some cases, the predominant drug, as in San Diego within
our population, to midwestern cities. But there's also a very real concern
about the spread of methamphetamine use in rural communities. And we don't
now test for levels of methamphetamine use in rural communities, but the
new program will allow us to do that.

Q Is that because it's so easy to manufacture?

MR. TRAVIS: It is easy to manufacture. Why it's picking up in rural
communities, I think we need to know a lot more about that. Let me just ask
Jack if he can add to that.

DR. RILEY: Only that I think we might begin to develop some additional
information on potential spread to the eastern United States as we bring on
the 12 new cites that are identified on the cover of this year's report.
But when I spoke about Atlanta, Chicago and St. Louis, which are the
easternmost sites, those numbers, while relatively significant among the
white offender population in those cities, represent a small number of
individuals. So, to date, I don't think we're seeing any compelling
evidence that methamphetamine is spreading eastward, only that it has a
very solid hold in the western United States.

Q Do you know why it is that these communities have such different usages
of the various drugs? Is it that the supply of methamphetamine is great in
the southwest, or is it that tastes vary in drugs just like they do in food
- -- they have Philly cheese steaks in Philadelphia and tacos in San Diego.
What's the reason?

MR. TRAVIS: Well, in terms of methamphetamine production, there is good law
enforcement evidence that much of the production of methamphetamine is
connected to activities south of the border in Mexico. So I think that
there is sort of an international issue there that General McCaffrey is
very concerned about as well as Administrator Constantine.

I think some drug epidemics come and go. That's certainly what's happening
with crack. And they take hold in places in some places and not in others.
The good news that we've talked about in terms of the crack use shows that
there is also an intergenerational difference in terms of these use
patterns. So that we're seeing younger people who are now coming of the
age where they might engage in risky behaviors, including drug use,
including crack cocaine use, who are using at much lower rates than their
slightly older brothers or brothers' and sisters' friends.

In the research literature, this is called sort of the "big brother"
syndrome, where the younger brother looks at what's happening to his older
brother, who is now either in jail or a crackhead or engaged in some risky
and unproductive behavior, and says, I don't want that to be me. So we
have not only these regional differences but these generational differences
in terms of drug epidemics.

And part of what we believe is happening with the crack epidemic is this
combination of very effective law enforcement -- law enforcement,
problem-solving policing has figured out how to deal much more effectively
with the violence associated with crack markets -- and a different message
that's being perceived and acted upon by younger people in terms of that
very risky behavior.

Q Could you repeat, is there any correlation between the type of drug use
and the type of crime committed?

DR. RILEY: We executed the study at the National Institute of Justice,
published last year, looking at homicide trends in eight cities across the
United States, six of which are cities that are part of this network. And
in cases where both the homicide trends were declining and the homicide
trends were increasing, there is relatively clear correlation between that
homicide trend and the percentage of homicides and the percentage of adult
males testing positive for cocaine.

We can't distinguish in the testing between powder cocaine and crack
cocaine, but we do know from our self-report information that most of those
individuals are, in fact, crack users rather than powder cocaine users.
And so --

Q But it hasn't been taken beyond that level?

DR. RILEY: We've also extended that analysis to the other 17 cities that
are part of the system, and again, that same relationship holds. But as far
as relationship to other types of violent crime, that type of analysis was
a little more difficult. Homicide was chosen because you have effective
reporting; it's very easy to find a victim and the counts and the quality
of the information on the homicide are much clearer.

Q But there's no cross-reference between a test for marijuana or
methamphetamine and robbery or --

DR. RILEY: No, we tested methamphetamine, marijuana and heroin, or the
opiate class, against homicide rates. There was some correlation between
heroin and homicide rates, but it turns out that a lot of heroin users are
poly-drug users, including testing positive for cocaine. People that test
positive only for opiates, not for cocaine, there is no relationship.

Q With methamphetamine use growing in the white and female population, does
that correspond to a growth in arrests among whites and females, or are the
arrest rates the same, it's just more of them have used drugs?

DR. RILEY: I don't think our data are showing changes in underlying arrest
rates. What we typically get is approximately 20 percent of the
individuals in any given jurisdiction are arrested on drug charges. So
they could be arrested on a cocaine charge, they could be arrested on a
methamphetamine charge. The other 80 percent of the offenders are in there
for a variety of other charges -- prostitution, property offenses, and so
forth. So the mix of people that we interviewing as part of this program
is probably not changing. How that translates into --

Q -- just as many women and just as many whites as always, -- they're not
going up?

DR. RILEY: Correct. I believe so, but whether the underlying arrest
patterns in those communities are changing, I have less information at this
point.

Q Did you add together all the arrests in all the cities and come up with a
percentage of positive results as an aggregate?

MR. TRAVIS: A methodological question.

DR. RILEY: The answer is no, we don't do that at this point. I would
venture --

Q Why not?

DR. RILEY: It's relatively difficult to be able to compare
cross-communities. To give one example, at this point, what we call our
catchment area, which is the underlying population of arrestees, in some
communities, it's a city; in other communities, it's a county; in some
communities, we're only one of the jails that might be in the county. As
we progress methodologically through the next couple of years, I think
we'll be able to provide that picture. But then you get into problems of,
particularly with lower-level offenses, whether the underlying offenses
that you're putting together are truly comparable across jurisdictions.

MR. TRAVIS: I think the idea of using these data to create a single
national picture is a tempting idea. I understand that. But I think the
power of what we've been able to demonstrate through this research report
is that, in fact, there are very different pictures of drug abuse patterns
and trends and problems at the local level. So the national data have some
value. I'm not discounting the importance of understanding at the national
level whether marijuana use, cocaine use, heroin use, methamphetamine use
is up in an aggregate sense. But to say that heroin use is up three
percent doesn't really help a police commissioner in Baltimore, where they
have a very significant heroin problem and wants to know whether the heroin
problem in Baltimore is moving in the right direction.

So it may be possible, methodologically, at some point, to aggregate those
data and control for the variables. But I think the policy picture that is
very evident and clear and comes in focus when you look at the ADAM data
is, in effect, there is no single national drug problem. We have lots of
very different local drug problems, and if we give this information about
those local problems to those local communities on an ongoing basis with
regular feedback as to whether they're making a difference, whether
community policing strategy is working, whether the drug court is working,
whether the epidemic is waning or waxing, this information is very
important and not previously available to local communities.

Q Is it fair to conclude, then, that there's limits on how broad a national
drug policy can be? If we've got all of these different local problems,
then a national role would seem to be limited in how it --

MR. TRAVIS: Well, I think, in fact, the other two announcements that the
President is making tomorrow that are expansion by nearly 40 percent of the
number of drug courts and the award of $5 million of grants to local law
enforcement agencies in the communities that are affected by the
methamphetamine problem, that type of federal assistance coming out of this
administration is exactly the type of support that is needed for
communities to be able to do something about their drug problems at their
local levels.

So a methamphetamine grant to a city that is plagued by methamphetamine
problems is -- that is real assistance from the national level, and that's
the role that the federal government is trying to play.

MR. TOIV: Great. Thank you.

END 1:45 P.M. EDT

- -0- /U.S. Newswire 202-347-2770/ 07/11 10:15

Copyright 1998, U.S. Newswire

Checked-by: Mike Gogulski