TESTING TIMES

ls it possible to predict whether children will become drug users?

A QUESTIONNAIRE that allows schools to predict an adolescent's chances of
becoming a drug abuser or alcoholic will be available in Britain this
autumn. The designer of the test says results of largescale screenings may
one day be published to inform parents about the numbers of potential drug
abusers at schools in their areas. But some experts doubt whether the test
will actually help children at risk.

Ian Sutherland of the University of Wales at Swansea developed the
questionnaire after years of research into what puts a young person at risk
of substance abuse. His work has shown that low self-esteem, low academic
achievement and substance abuse in the home are among the major factors.

The new questionnaire is meant for children aged between about 10 and
13---typically before they have started to abuse drugs or alcohol. It
includes 47 questions designed to tease out sociological and psychological
risk factors. For instance, it asks them about how often they have seen
their parents drunk, how often they drink themselves, and whether they have
ever been in trouble with the police.

Further questions in the test ask how strongly the children agree or
disagree with statements such as "I think my parents are proud of me" or "I
can feel so ashamed of things l've done I just want to hide". >From the
answers, teachers can calculate a "substance abuse susceptibility index", a
measure of an adolescent's overall risk of substance abuse.

The questionnaire is due to be launched this autumn by the Psychological
Corporation, a London publishing house. Pilot studies of almost 10 000
children between the ages of 11 and 16 have shown the test picks up all the
major risk factors identified by Sutherland. As yet, however, there have
been no long-term studies to reveal the accuracy of the questionnaire in
predicting actual outcomes.

Sutherland thinks the tool may also be useful for large-scale screenings in
Britain's schools. He says the findings might someday be published,
allowing parents to take into account the number of potential substance
abusers at schools in their areas when choosing schools.

The idea has rung alarm bells for some educationalists. Mary James, an
education expert at Cambridge University, says that since league tables of
schools' performances were introduced about a decade ago, the number of
pupils expelled has increased by about 300 per cent as schools try to
bolster their ratings. She thinks the same would happen if results from the
new questionnaire were made public. "It would force children out onto the
street and into the shopping malls where they're more exposed to the drugs
problem," she says.

Andrea Kopstein of the US National Institute on Drug Abuse doubts that the
questionnaire can be accurate. "I'm concerned that it might label kids
unfairly," she adds. And Mary Mustoe of Norwich council's drug action team
points out that knowing a child's potential for substance abuse may not
help prevent it. "Often these predictive tools are used as a stick rather
than a support," she says. Worse still, she says, labelling a child as a
potential drug addict or alcoholic can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Sutherland admits that the test could be misused. "It depends on the
motivation of the people who are gathering the data," he says. He expects
local education authorities to ensure the questionnaire is put to good use.

Checked-by: Pat Dolan