ARMY EXODUS, REBEL TALKS AROUSE ANGST IN COLOMBIA

SAN VICENTE DEL CAGUAN COLOMBIA -- In a few weeks,
residents here will cut short their cantina visits and cattle roundups to
throw a welcoming party for "the boys" -- the leftist rebels whose bullets,
bombs and sheer numbers make them virtual kings of this remote town.

Hoisting Colombian flags and singing the anthem, residents also will
bid a solemn farewell to the last semblance of state security here:
the 1,500 army troops and policemen who seldom strayed from their
quarters for fear of being blown up or ambushed by the rebels.

The extraordinary ceremonies, both backed by the government, are part
of a plan by new President Andres Pastrana to start peace talks by
pulling out troops in San Vicente and four other vast townships spread
over more than 16,000 square miles.

In July, Pastrana stunned Colombians by meeting secretly with chiefs
of the largest rebel group -- the Revolutionary Armed Forces of
Colombia, or FARC -- and agreeing to demilitarize the areas
temporarily to encourage rebels to begin talks by November.

The areas not only include FARC strongholds and key river and mountain
routes, but fields of coca leaf, the raw material for cocaine, which
helps fund rebel activities.

Pastrana's efforts brought a fleeting sense of optimism to Colombians
weary of more than three decades of brutal conflict among rebels,
paramilitary forces and government troops.

But in San Vicente, the largest of the five municipalities, doubts
about what to expect have generated alarm amid hope.

"People are frightened," said acting mayor German Amezquita. "They've
loaded up their cattle. Some residents have left. People don't know
what the pullout is about. They think . . . the guerrillas will be in
charge of everything."

Here, as in many villages throughout the country, rebels already
exercise extraordinary power, replacing a central government which has
long neglected rural Colombians.

Backed by automatic rifles, threats and informants, rebels punish
thieves and lecture husbands who beat wives; they fix roads and
enforce a night travel ban by burning violators' cars; they fine
fishermen who toss dynamite in the nearby river; they collect money
from merchants; and they kidnap or kill those who don't pay.

"They have total influence," said a resident who requested anonymity.
"Many . . . government decisions are ordered by the rebels. Almost
everyone is extorted. They are the judges of community behavior.
There's a line of people waiting to talk to the commanders and explain
things."

Some people seek out the rebels to settle disputes, because such
resolution is faster than the slow-motion mediation of local judges
and bureaucrats.

"Everyone goes to them with family and economic problems," lawyer
Carlos Julio Cárdenas said. "They have solved big problems that judges
haven't been able to fix."

But the swift justice has an exceptionally dark side in San
Vicente.

Earlier this year, the town was terrorized by a rash of bombings of
government offices, security posts, and the central park which killed
or wounded numerous residents. Many here attribute the bombings to the
rebels.

And at least 100 peasants and others have been killed this year under
unexplained circumstances which government officials and security
forces have been powerless to stop or even investigate.

"There is total impunity here," said Luís Alberto Cabrera, a
veterinarian. "Here they kill anyone, and nobody knows who did it."

Fear has driven out many merchants and ranchers, who are often targets
of extortion.

In recent weeks, a stream of trucks has left San Vicente, as some
ranchers sell their cattle in anticipation of guerrilla rule. Others
have pulled children out of school and fled the region.

"Who knows what will happen to institutions like banks?" a businessman
wondered. "We don't know where we're going."

Some believe the rebels want to create an independent republic in San
Vicente and other southern areas, providing a zone of influence safe
from reprisals.

In past years, many leftists who gave up arms were systematically
eliminated by paramilitary forces.

"Our feeling is that the guerrilla bosses have a hidden agenda," says
Father Leonel Narváez, a Catholic priest and a leader in town efforts
to plan for the pullout. "They want to become an independent republic
to be safe."

In a recent meeting between residents and rebel "Commander Ruso" to
discuss the process, Ruso ruled out a republic and insisted rebels
would respect the justice system, mayor and other institutions.

"He said 'no' (to a republic) because they're already everywhere in
the country, and they're not fighting for one zone but to have social
well-being throughout the country," Cabrera said.

To bolster community input in the process, residents formed a peace
committee to meet with rebel and government leaders and air local concerns.

One fear is that rebels will increase reprisals against opponents
after the army and police pull out, and that locals who collaborated
with troops will be killed.

Critics also say the FARC will use the pullout to consolidate its
strength and recruit new combatants and collaborators in the area.

"For the guerrillas, such talks are a useful strategy," said Camilo
Echandia, an adviser to the government's peace commission.

In the past, cease fires allowed the FARC "to expand into new zones
and increase their number of fronts by taking advantage of army
inactivity," Echandia said.

But Narváez expects less violence and "a time of relative peace" in
San Vicente because rebels will be under national and international
pressure to act responsibly.

So far, Pastrana has revealed few specifics of his plans for talks
with the FARC and the National Liberation Army, the number two rebel
group.

Although the groups have different agendas, both advocate agrarian
reform, cuts in military spending, and deep changes to the political
system.

Analysts say Colombians should brace themselves for more war and the
possibility the talks may sputter.

"This is the first step in a very long process," said Andres Franco, a
political scientist at Javeriana University.

"This could take . . . years. We're just creating conditions for talks
- -- talks which could go wrong or could go right."

Franco says Pastrana is taking a huge gamble by staking his presidency
on his ability to make peace.

"If nothing happens, politically it's going to be very costly. It's
going to be a failure. After that, then what?" he asked.

Checked-by: Patrick Henry