STUDY SHOWS RISK OF ROBBERY OVERSTATED

Fears of soaring heroin-related crime should be set against surveys
indicating that the risk of someone in NSW being robbed are "fairly low", Dr
Don Weatherburn, director of the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and
Research, said yesterday.

The surveys, involving interviews with more than 10,000 residents, revealed
fewer than 0.5 per cent of those aged over 15 fell victim to any kind of
robbery last year.

Dr Weatherburn agreed the statistics were surprising. They emerged from
victim surveys by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on behalf of his
bureau and the NSW Police Service.

"Even assault, which is a far more prevalent offence than robbery, affected
less than 4 per cent of the NSW population during 1997," he said.

"The prevalence of sexual assault on persons aged 18 and over has remained
just under 1 per cent since 1992. The percentage of households touched by
vehicle theft has remained steady at about 2 per cent also since 1992."

The proportion of NSW residents who considered they did not have a crime or
public nuisance problem in their neighbourhood had remained above 40 per
cent since 1990.

The survey results stand in apparent contrast to results of a Bureau of
Statistics report in July this year, which said that because of a surge in
heroin-related crime, NSW had seen a rise of about 2,000 robberies a year
compared with previous averages.

In interviews for the bureau study in south-western Sydney, 202 heroin users
reported earning a combined $237,291 from crime in the previous week, an
average of $1,175 each.

The bureau study said the effects of the 1995-96 peak in heroin use were
being felt in increased break-and-enters, armed robberies and car thefts.

Dr Weatherburn said yesterday public willingness to report crime had changed
little since 1990, the only discernable change being in the willingness to
report assault. In 1990, about 30 per cent of victims made complaints. In
1997 more than 40 per cent did.

The Police Commissioner, Mr Peter Ryan, said that while the overall chance
of becoming a crime victim in NSW was relatively low, there were areas of
higher risk such as Bankstown, Cabramatta, Wollongong and the Central Coast.

Checked-by: Don Beck