HEROIN HAUL A DROP IN THE OCEAN

THE heroin seized in Wednesday's record drugs bust would have been replaced
overnight from stockpiles or by heroin flown in from Asia, according to
experts, and police would be naive to think otherwise.

The Australian Federal Police seized 400kg of pure heroin - almost three
times the total amount seized Australia-wide last year - in one of the
world's biggest drug busts.

AFP officer Ray Tinker said yesterday the haul was a "substantial inroad"
to the burgeoning drugs trade and could prevent scores of deaths.

"It's 400kg that's going to kill (fewer) young people in this country," he
said.

But Dr Alex Wodak, from the Drug Law Reform Commission, said claiming
heroin availability would be significantly affected by the bust was "fantasy".

"It is as believable as the notion that taking several million megalitres
of seawater off the coast of NSW will reduce the number of drownings this
year," he said.

"Both are equally plausible."

Dr Wodak said there "is a global glut of heroin".

"Heroin production is trebling every three years," he said.

Paul Dillon, information manager with the National Drug and Alcohol
Research Centre, said that anyone who believed busting one heroin ring, no
matter how big, would seriously harm trade was not only naive but stupid.

"I don't think it will have any impact at all," he said.

"Entrepreneurial dealers will just hold their supplies for a while to give
the impression supplies are drying up and then start selling again in a
couple of days or a week's time at a higher price."

Mr Dillon said the fact there was an ample supply of heroin was reflected
in prices. Today, one cap of heroin (equal to 0.2g, enough for one hit)
sells for $30, down from $50 last year and $80 in 1996.

"Heroin is not like a supermarket commodity that, when supplies start to
dwindle, they bring more in," he said.

"Whenever they can they bring as much as they can in and stockpile it."

Mr Dillon and Dr Wodak said the only way to cut heroin supply was to reduce
demand.

Dr Wodak said a US study of the cocaine trade had found that every dollar
spent on interrupting supplies provided a 32c return, while every dollar
spent on drug treatment provided a $7.48 return.

An Australian study in 1992 concluded we spend roughly $1000 a minute on
illicit drug law enforcement.

"We have to fund what works and stop funding so generously what doesn't
work," he said. "And what I know works is drug treatment."

Three more suspected drug couriers were arrested yesterday after their ship
docked at Sydney's Neutral Bay.

Checked-by: Mike Gogulski