News (Media Awareness Project) - US NV: Governor, Senate. Question 9 Poll |
Title: | US NV: Governor, Senate. Question 9 Poll |
Published On: | 1998-11-01 |
Source: | Las Vegas Review-Journal (NV) |
Fetched On: | 2008-09-06 21:27:25 |
GOVERNOR, SENATE. QUESTION 9 POLL
How the poll was conducted
The Mason-Dixon Nevada Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Political/Media
Research Inc. of Columbia, Maryland from October 25 through October 27,
1998. A total of 817 registered Nevada voters who vote regularly in
state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. Those
interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four
digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges were utilized
in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were
assigned to reflect the voter distribution by county. The margin for
error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no
more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is
a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that
range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is
higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or regional grouping.
Sample Figures: Men 404 (50%) Women 413 (50%) Democrats 353 (43%)
Republicans 367 (45%) Independents 97 (12%)
First Congressional District 366 interviews Second Congressional
District 451 interviews.
ANALYSIS
Democrat Jan Jones has significantly narrowed Republican Kenny Guinn's
lead in the Nevada governor's race, making the race extremely
competitive again and too close to call. Statewide, 47% and 9% are for
none or undecided. Guinn held a 51%-36% after the September primary
election, but the current margin is more reflective of the race prior to
the primary. in late August, Guinn led Jones by only a 44%-30% margin.
The U.S. Senate race is also very tight. Democratic incumbent Harry Reid
leads Republican challenger John Ensign by a 47%-45% margin, with 8%
undecided. Reid had a 45%-44% lead in September, and a 46%-41% advantage
in August. State Question Number 9 (medical use of marijuana) appears
likely to win state voter appeal.
STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION
I am going to read to you the names of several inividuals who are active
in public life. After I mention each name, I would simply like you to
tell me if you recognize that individual. If you do recognize a name, I
will then ask you if you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral
opinion of that person. The first name is ___. Do you recognize that
name? (If Yes) do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion
of ___. Governor Recognize Favorable Recognize Unfavorable Recognize
Neutral Don't Recognize Kenny Guinn 44% 33% 22% 1% Jan Jones 41% 36% 22%
1%
U.S. Senate Recognize Favorable Recognize Unfavorable Recognize Neutral
Don't Recognize Harry Reid 49% 36% 13% 2% John Ensign 46% 31% 19% 3%
QUESTION: If the 1998 election for Governor were held today, would you
vote for Jan Jones, the Democrat, Kenny Guinn, the Republican, or none
of the above? State Men Women Dems Reps Inds Guinn 47& 53% 41% 14% 78%
47% Jones 44% 40% 48% 76% 15% 40% None of the above 4% 2% 6% 3% 4% 6%
Undecided 5% 5% 5% 7% 3% 7%
QUESTION: If the 1998 election for Nevada's U.S. Senate seat were held
today, would you vote for Harry Reid, the Democrat, or JOhn Ensign, the
Republican? State Men Women Dems Reps Inds Reid 47% 45% 49% 81% 13% 48%
Ensign 45% 49% 41% 14% 77% 43% Undecided 8% 6% 10% 5% 10% 9%
QUESTION: Question Number 9 reads: Shall the Nevada Constitution be
amended to allow the possesion and use of a plant of the genus Cannabis
(marijuana) for the treatment or alleviation of certain illnesses upon
advice of a physician, to require parental consent for such use by
minors, and to authorize appropriate methods of supply to patients
authorized to use it?
If you were voting on Question Number 9 today, would you vote: 52% -
"YES" in favor of Question Number 9, or 40% - "NO" in opposition of
Question Number 9? 8% - Undecided (NOT READ)
Checked-by: Rolf Ernst
How the poll was conducted
The Mason-Dixon Nevada Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Political/Media
Research Inc. of Columbia, Maryland from October 25 through October 27,
1998. A total of 817 registered Nevada voters who vote regularly in
state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. Those
interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four
digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges were utilized
in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were
assigned to reflect the voter distribution by county. The margin for
error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no
more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is
a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that
range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is
higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or regional grouping.
Sample Figures: Men 404 (50%) Women 413 (50%) Democrats 353 (43%)
Republicans 367 (45%) Independents 97 (12%)
First Congressional District 366 interviews Second Congressional
District 451 interviews.
ANALYSIS
Democrat Jan Jones has significantly narrowed Republican Kenny Guinn's
lead in the Nevada governor's race, making the race extremely
competitive again and too close to call. Statewide, 47% and 9% are for
none or undecided. Guinn held a 51%-36% after the September primary
election, but the current margin is more reflective of the race prior to
the primary. in late August, Guinn led Jones by only a 44%-30% margin.
The U.S. Senate race is also very tight. Democratic incumbent Harry Reid
leads Republican challenger John Ensign by a 47%-45% margin, with 8%
undecided. Reid had a 45%-44% lead in September, and a 46%-41% advantage
in August. State Question Number 9 (medical use of marijuana) appears
likely to win state voter appeal.
STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION
I am going to read to you the names of several inividuals who are active
in public life. After I mention each name, I would simply like you to
tell me if you recognize that individual. If you do recognize a name, I
will then ask you if you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral
opinion of that person. The first name is ___. Do you recognize that
name? (If Yes) do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion
of ___. Governor Recognize Favorable Recognize Unfavorable Recognize
Neutral Don't Recognize Kenny Guinn 44% 33% 22% 1% Jan Jones 41% 36% 22%
1%
U.S. Senate Recognize Favorable Recognize Unfavorable Recognize Neutral
Don't Recognize Harry Reid 49% 36% 13% 2% John Ensign 46% 31% 19% 3%
QUESTION: If the 1998 election for Governor were held today, would you
vote for Jan Jones, the Democrat, Kenny Guinn, the Republican, or none
of the above? State Men Women Dems Reps Inds Guinn 47& 53% 41% 14% 78%
47% Jones 44% 40% 48% 76% 15% 40% None of the above 4% 2% 6% 3% 4% 6%
Undecided 5% 5% 5% 7% 3% 7%
QUESTION: If the 1998 election for Nevada's U.S. Senate seat were held
today, would you vote for Harry Reid, the Democrat, or JOhn Ensign, the
Republican? State Men Women Dems Reps Inds Reid 47% 45% 49% 81% 13% 48%
Ensign 45% 49% 41% 14% 77% 43% Undecided 8% 6% 10% 5% 10% 9%
QUESTION: Question Number 9 reads: Shall the Nevada Constitution be
amended to allow the possesion and use of a plant of the genus Cannabis
(marijuana) for the treatment or alleviation of certain illnesses upon
advice of a physician, to require parental consent for such use by
minors, and to authorize appropriate methods of supply to patients
authorized to use it?
If you were voting on Question Number 9 today, would you vote: 52% -
"YES" in favor of Question Number 9, or 40% - "NO" in opposition of
Question Number 9? 8% - Undecided (NOT READ)
Checked-by: Rolf Ernst
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