PANAMA PULL-OUT MAY HURT DOD'S ANTI-DRUG MISSION

CARTAGENA, Colombia -- US military counter-narcotics operations in Latin
America are expected to suffer, at least temporarily, when the USA pulls
its forces out of Panama next year.

US authorities have yet to identify new forward operating sites in the
region from which to launch airborne monitoring and detection missions.

Now that negotiations over a future US military presence in Panama have
broken down, the US government has begun lobbying nations in Central and
South America, including Ecuador, Honduras and Peru to establish a series
of small outposts to replace its military bases in Panama. However, those
locations will not be in place by 1 May 1999 when the runway at Howard Air
Force Base in Panama, the primary staging area, is scheduled to shut down.
The USA will then be forced to conduct its counter-narcotics flights from
the continental USA and Puerto Rico, where US Army South, US Special
Operations Command South, air force elements and about 15,000 reserves will
be stationed.

"We would be hard-pressed right now if we got an agreement tomorrow to have
a fully functioning forward operating base on 1 May, which simply says to
do the business we need to do in Latin America, at least initially, we're
going to have to make heavier reliance on operations that initiate from the
continental United States and Puerto Rico and other fixed bases that remain
in the region," such as Soto Cano Air Base in Honduras, Marine Corps Gen
Charles Wilhelm, commander-in-chief of the US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM),
told Jane's Defence Weekly on 1 December.

This will strain the Department of Defense's (DoDs) ability to maintain a
watchful eye on drug shipments and transit routes and provide help in
eradicating drug production centres, Gen Wilhelm said. Without Panama as a
staging area, the counter-narcotics operations are also likely to cost more
in fuel and other logistics.

"When we commit aircraft to provide radar surveillance they are not
performing the mission while they are en route from a distant base to what
I call the mission box," he said. "They are only effective once they are in
the mission box. If that is a long transit distance then one of two things
are going to occur: you are either going to commit more assets to provide
the same relative level of coverage; or if you try to do that kind of job
with the same number of assets then there is going to be some diminishment
in coverage."

In meetings in Colombia last week, during the third Defence Ministerial of
the Americas meeting, officials from the US Departments of Defense and
State broached the subject of setting up at least two or three forward
operating bases with Ecuador, Honduras and Peru, according to officials
involved in the discussions.

According to Peter Romero, Assistant Secretary of State for Inter-American
Affairs, various countries in the region were receptive to the idea,
although no formal agreements have been reached. Nevertheless, pressed for
time, the US government wants to move quickly.

The US is looking to establish forward operating locations with maintenance
and housing facilities but no permanently stationed aircraft and no more
than a dozen permanently stationed personnel, mindful of Latin American
sensitivities. The best solution would be one or more of these "lily pads"
in the Caribbean Basin, Central America and in the Andean mountains of
South America, Gen Wilhelm said.

However, the extent to which the DoD can replicate its counter-narcotics
missions from Panama - about 4,000 troops are located at Howard and an
estimated 15,000 anti-drug flights are flown annually - will depend on the
number and location of the forward operating locations, Romero said.

Meanwhile, the State Department will continue to spearhead the negotiations
while SOUTHCOM determines which sites have sufficient infrastructure to
meet US military requirements such as security and affordability.

Checked-by: Richard Lake