MYANMAR REBELS PREPARE FOR DEFENSE

CHIANG MAI, Thailand (AP) Every year in Myanmar, when the rainy
season ends and roads to the eastern border dry out, rebellious ethnic
minorities anticipate a fresh army offensive aimed at crushing their
independence.

The latest offensive appeared under way today as 1999 began, with
skirmishes reported as Myanmar's military government built up its
forces and rag-tag rebels formed a new alliance to oppose them.
Government troops and ethnic Karenni rebels exchanged small arms fire
and mortar shells at dawn, Thai military officials said.

"It's a matter of days before the fighting reaches the border area,"
said Maj. Gen. Chamlong Photong, chief-of-staff of the Thai army along
the border with Myanmar.

The government in Yangon, the Myanmar capital, pursues a
divide-and-conquer strategy in an effort to rule the hodgepodge of
ethnic groups arrayed along the 1,500-mile Thai-Myanmar border.

More than 100,000 refugees from Myanmar, also known as Burma, live in
border camps inside Thailand. Many tell stories of rape, torture and
forced labor by Myanmar government troops.

The dry-season offensives usually end with a new wave of refugees
fleeing across the rugged frontier into Thailand. The army usually
consolidates its position, and the rebels generally win back some
territory when monsoons return around May.

Thailand expects to see a bigger Myanmar army offensive than usual
this year and is mobilizing its own troops to keep fighting from
spilling over the border.

Several Myanmar battalions have been deployed in the border area, the
Thais say. Thai military intelligence has reported clashes between
ethnic groups and government forces in recent days.

However, a Myanmar government official, speaking on condition of
anonymity, suggested that the reported buildup was exaggerated and
that "in countering guerrilla tactics, one doesn't use huge manpower
or heavy weapons."

Facing Myanmar's forces are fractious rebel bands that have made and
broken deals with each other and the central government since the
country gained independence from Britain half a century ago.

Some groups produce and smuggle opium, heroin and amphetamines to
raise money for arms and for their personal wealth.

This year, one group, the Shan State Army, is trying to shed its image
as a tool of notorious drug lord Khun Sa, who surrendered in an
amnesty deal to the government three years ago.

Khun Sa wore two hats as nationalist fighter for the Shan minority
and as one of the world's biggest heroin traffickers. His
organization, the Mong Tai Army, disbanded with his surrender.

The Shan State Army, a component of the Mong Tai Army, says it is now
composed purely of ethnic nationalists and is teaming up with the
Karenni National Progressive Party, a smaller organization not
implicated in the drug trade.

The Shan State Army has asked the United States and Thailand to help
it staunch the flow of drugs, and the Thais have welcomed their efforts.

The biggest achievement of Myanmar's current military rulers has been
signing cease-fires with most of the ethnic minorities in the
mid-1990s, even as it keeps up military pressure.

In December 1994, the army ousted the Karen National Union from their
longtime headquarters in the southeastern town of Manerplaw.

The government later reached a cease-fire with another southern group,
the New Mon State Army, allowing Yangon to build a $1.2 billion gas
pipeline to Thailand through their area.

The Karenni signed a cease-fire with the government in 1995, but the
deal broke down the following year over disputes involving the
lucrative timber trade.