MURDER SPARKS FEAR OF MORE UNDERWORLD FEUDING

THE gangland assassination of a Dublinman on Wednesday night was the second
underworld killing this year, sparking fears of a renewed round of criminal
in-fighting.

The shooting comes within three weeks of the murder of John Dillon, a
53-year-old small-time Dublin criminal who had previously been involved in
armed bank raids. Dillon was shot several times at point-blank range at the
door of his home in Finglas.

The latest victim, 44-year-old Pascal Boland, was also known to gardai, for
bank robberies in the 1980s, and as a drug dealer with a northside Dublin
gang. He was shot six times outside his home.

The proximity and manner of the two murders has brought fresh fears of a
renewed round of underworld assassinations, and highlighted the easy access
criminal gangs now have to guns.

The death of Dublin crime boss, Martin Cahill, heralded a wave of gangland
hits in Dublin, as the criminal underworld reorganised itself into a new
hierarchy. Cahill's murder in August 1994 prompted a two-year wave of
gangland killings which saw 15 people killed in Dublin by December 1996.

Ironically, Veronica Guerin's murder is the one most associated in the
public eye with the criminal underworld.

The investigation into that death, led to a reorganisation of the drugs
trade in Ireland, with many of the key figures being forced out of the
country to avoid a clampdown by gardai and the Criminal Assets Bureau.

There were fears in the aftermath of Veronica Guerin's death in 1996 that
there would be a bloody feud, as turf wars were waged over control of the
void in the lucrative drugs trade left by the departure of key figures.

By December that year, drug dealers like Mark Dwyer and PJ Judge became the
notorious victims of this struggle for power.

However, despite the second highest level of violent deaths in the history
of the State in 1997, only two of the 55 victims were gangland figures.
Anthony Chester Beatty was shot as he left a Dublin City Centre pub on
November 30, while Timmy Rattigan was shot in the head with a 9mm gun in a
Dublin bookies' shop.

In 1998, despite over 20 shootings in the Dublin area, only two people died
in what could be described as gangland shootings - Eamon O'Reilly who was
shot in a pub in Finglas, and Gerard Moran shot twice in September of last
year.

After two relatively quiet years in terms of gangland killings, gardai
hoped they were a thing of the past. Now, however, just one month into
1999, gardai are investigating the assassination of two relatively minor
players in the Dublin crime world.

More worrying, however, is the continuing rise in violent deaths. These
rose to 48 last year. In human terms, one person is dying a violent death
almost every weekend. Just nine years ago, the annual murder toll was 17.

Ironically, the recent increase in violent deaths has coincided with a 16%
fall in reported crime since 1996. Up until recently murders were
considered front page news. Now, unless there is a distinct criminal
element, brutality, and a female victim, violent deaths are rarely
considered newsworthy enough for the front page.

This ambivalence has corresponded with a distinct rise in violent deaths in
Ireland since the beginning of the 1990s. Over this period the population
has grown and the country has got richer.

Professor Max Taylor of the Applied Psychology Department in UCC believes a
number of factors could be influencing the rise in violent deaths. "Clearly
if the unit of population has risen over the period you would expect the
number of deaths to go up. You also have an Ireland that is changing in
relation to the coming down of barriers. One of the things that's changing
is our attitude to authority. People are questioning authority,'' Prof
Taylor said.

"Also, even though the country is getting richer, some people are getting
poorer. There was at one point a lot of talk about an underclass, where you
have more and more people trapped in poverty and relative wealth becomes a
negative thing for them. I don't know if that's the case here, but it's
something that should be looked at."

"Another thing that should be looked at is the type of killings. How many
of them are third party as usually most involve someone who knows the
person who is killed? If there is a change in the type of killings then
that should be examined."

Despite concerns about the rising incidence of violent deaths, they are
still relatively infrequent here. The gardai and the Department of Justice
will point to survey results published this week which found that out of 17
police forces in Europe, Ireland had the joint lowest murder rate along
with Belgium. Based on these 1996 figures, the average citizen here still
only has a one in 100,000 chance of being murdered.