MEXICO SEEKS US ANTI-DRUG CERTIFICATION

Mexico Risks Losing Anti-Drug Certification Mexico has produced such
dismal results in combating drug trafficking in the last year that
Mexican and U.S. officials say they are braced for an aggressive
attempt by the U.S. Congress to decertify its southern neighbor and
add it to the "black list" of nations judged failures in the war
against drugs. By almost any measure, Mexico made no significant
progress in reducing drug trafficking and corruption in 1998, and in
many areas actually did worse than the previous year, according to
U.S. officials and a review of U.S. performance expectations. Even
some Mexican officials privately agreed. "What grade do you give them
if they have really done nothing?" said a U.S. official involved in
monitoring Mexico's anti-drug efforts. "You would have to give them a
D-minus or an F."

Seizures of cocaine, marijuana and heroin fell significantly. Drug
arrests declined, and the number of drug investigations either
underway or completed dropped 14 percent from 1997. There was a drop
in the number of poppy fields destroyed and clandestine drug
laboratories that were found and dismantled. Confiscations of
drug-carrying cars, trucks and boats were down. Seizures of ephedrine,
the key ingredient in methamphetamine AD commonly known as speed AD and
of opium gum, a poppy residue used to make heroin, were almost halved
from 1997. Even worse, in the view of many U.S. officials, was
Mexico's failure to show progress in several critical areas that are
considered the true measure of its resolve to combat the illegal drug
trade: No major Mexican-born drug kingpin has ever been extradited to
the United States; the country's new money-laundering laws have
yielded only one conviction; and corruption continues to pervade the
government, including elite units specially trained or vetted by the
U.S. military, CIA and law enforcement agencies. The country's two
main drug mafias AD the Tijuana and Juarez cartels AD still operate with
few restraints, and a third, the once-dismantled Gulf cartel, is back
in business. And even when kingpins were arrested, they often evaded
justice. In one recent case, sources said, a top lieutenant in the
Juarez cartel allegedly paid millions in bribes to Mexican army
officials to be released from jail. In another case, drug and money
laundering charges filed against three alleged methamphetamine
kingpins who were captured by Mexican police AD the Amezcua brothers
from Guadalajara AD were dismissed. Two of the brothers are being held
principally on the strength of pending extradition requests by the
United States; the third is being detained on a weapons conviction.

One of the year's biggest disappointments stemmed from a U.S. sting
operation that Mexico said was conducted without its knowledge. After
U.S. Customs charged 26 Mexican bankers with money laundering in
connection with the so-called Casablanca sting, some Mexican officials
threatened to indict and seek the extradition of the U.S. agents who
conducted the operation on charges that they violated Mexican
sovereignty while working undercover in Mexico. On Sunday, Mexico
denied a U.S. request to extradite five Mexican bankers charged in the
case.

Mexican officials said they interpret the record differently. They
said, for example, that as a consequence of tougher law enforcement,
large plane loads of cocaine no longer transit Mexico because drug
traffickers have switched to safer routes through Caribbean sea lanes
AD a shift that could explain the reduction in Mexican cocaine seizures
last year.

Mexican officials noted that of the 10 people on Mexico's list of

most-wanted kingpins when Zedillo took office, six are in prison and
another is dead. Only the three Arellano Felix brothers AD leaders of
the Tijuana cartel AD remain at large.

"Of course we cannot destroy all the cartels in one day, but we are
working in a clean, honest, loyal, and especially in a very intensive
way, risking our lives, risking everything, and working very hard to
fight organized crime," said Eduardo Ibarrola, a top official in the
Mexican attorney general's office.

How Mexico has done in the drug war is more than an academic debate.
By March 1 of every year the U.S. president must certify whether
countries that are major drug producers or transshipment areas are
"fully cooperating" in the drug war. If not, the nations lose a host
of economic and trade benefits. The White House also has the option of
decertifying a country while waiving the sanctions, in the national
interest. Clinton, who plans to visit Mexico for meetings with Mexican
President Ernesto Zedillo Feb. 14 and 15, is expected to approve
Mexico's certification. But administration officials are increasingly
concerned that Mexico's weak 1998 record will prompt a concerted
effort by some members of Congress to overturn the decision. Last
year, decertified countries included Iran, Nigeria, Afghanistan and
Burma.

Members of Congress point to the administration's 12-point checklist
for certifying Mexico and say that almost none of the objectives AD
such as extraditing Mexican drug traffickers, curbing corruption and
prosecuting more kingpins AD have been met.

Rep. John L. Mica, R-Fla., chairman of the House subcommittee on
criminal justice, drug policy and human resources, said there would be
strong support this year to overturn Mexico's certification. Short of
that, he said, Congress might "look very specifically at international
trade issues to get leverage to ensure action" by Mexico.

"Mexico has made only minimal progress," Mica said. "They have been
heavy on the rhetoric and light on the action."

Senior administration officials said they know they are facing a hard
sell on Capitol Hill.

"Opponents of certification require more than good faith efforts from
Mexico AD they want results, including extraditions of Mexican
nationals, more prosecutions of corrupt officials and more than paper
agreements about cooperative law enforcement arrangements," said an
internal White House document obtained by the Washington Post.

"Without strong statistical evidence, our supporters [in Congress who
back certification] may very well become opponents," the document
warned. "They have made it known to us that they . . . need more and
better evidence of cooperative efforts. By this, they mean evidence of
outcomes." That could come soon, following a well-established pattern
in which Mexico delivers a sensational arrest around the time of
certification. According to another White House document, the Mexican
government is "reportedly working out final details before taking
action against Quintana Roo Gov. Mario Villanueva for drug-related
crimes." Villanueva, a member of the ruling Institutional
Revolutionary Party), is the focus of a joint U.S.-Mexico drug
investigation for allegedly being the chief protector of the Juarez
cartel in his state on the Yucatan Peninsula, which has become one of
the principal transit points for shipment of Colombian cocaine to the
United States. Mexican newspapers have reported that investigators
found millions of dollars in overseas bank accounts tied to
Villanueva. Some U.S. officials say acting against a governor would
offer a sign that Mexico is willing to tackle high-level drug
corruption in the ruling party. Villanueva has repeatedly denied any
connection with drug trafficking. Reflecting the same frustration felt
by his U.S. counterparts, one Mexican government official said that if
the certification decision were based solely on concrete results, even
he would have to vote to decertify his country. But, he continued, the

decision also should weigh the effort and progress Mexico is making
and the potentially disastrous political and economic ramifications
for both countries if the United States were to make an international
pariah of its southern neighbor and second-biggest trading partner.
Barry R. McCaffrey, the Clinton administration's drug czar, said he
"substantively disagreed" with critics of Mexico's anti-drug efforts,
saying the country's senior leadership was committed to rooting out
corruption and fighting drug trafficking.

"They are struggling to deal with the problem," he said. "The struggle
can be interpreted as either evidence of the sorry state of affairs or
evidence that some people are trying to do the right thing."

Not all the news was bad last year. Mexico spent about $770 million on
counter-narcotics programs, and more than 26,000 soldiers and
government employees were involved in the drug battle. The number of
acres of marijuana fields destroyed by the army grew 1.8 percent. More
guns and airplanes were seized than in 1997. The amount of drug money
confiscated more than doubled. Methamphetamine seizures grew by 72
pounds.

Juan Rebolledo, undersecretary for North America and Europe in
Mexico's Foreign Ministry, said certification is a "political process"
with no "clear criteria." But if Mexico were judged qualitatively, he
said, critics would see that it has added reforms and strategies to
increase its drug-fighting capacity dramatically. Last week, for
instance, Mexico unveiled a three-year, $400 million plan to beef up
drug interdiction efforts with new high technology equipment to track
the flow of cocaine and heroin and better vetting and training
programs. About two-thirds of the cocaine sold in the United States
comes in through Mexico.

A recent incident demonstrates why U.S. officials sometimes question
whether significant progress is really being made.

About three months ago, Gilberto Garza Garcia, 39, a top lieutenant in
the Juarez cartel, was arrested on drug charges, but then was allowed
to escape after allegedly paying what sources said was a
multimillion-dollar bribe to Mexican army officials. Garza Garcia was
apprehended a few weeks ago on an island off the coast of Venezuela
and has been returned to Mexican custody, sources said.

"We believe we have a narco-state just across the border," said a
Republican congressional aide. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich
"always bought the Wall Street line that decertifying was bad for
business. This year we won't have to worry about that crowd or the
NAFTA crowd," he said. He was referring to concerns among some
analysts about the impact of threatened economic sanctions on the
U.S.-Mexican partnership in the North American Free Trade Agreement.