"THREE STRIKES' BIG SUCCESS, SAYS AUTHOR

SACRAMENTO - More than a million crimes have been prevented and $21.7
billion in related costs have been saved since the state's "Three
Strikes, You're Out" law went into effect five years ago, an author of
the landmark legislation said Friday.

Secretary of Stale Bill Jones, in providing his interpretation of the
"three strikes" results to a crime victims conference, also
substantially credited the 1994 bill with a 51 percent reduction in
California's homicide rate.

Law has helped saved lives

"I think of all the statistics, the one that I think means the most
... is the fact that 5,694 of our fellow Californians are alive today
that would not have been alive if crime hadn't been substantially
reduced," Jones said.

"I'm not sayng 'three strikes' is the sole reason for that. But in a
state as diverse and complex as California, if you can have a 51
percent reduction in the homicide rate in five years, I would
guarantee you 'three strikes' is a big part of the reason."

The Three Strikes law was overwhelmingly passed by the Legislature in
1994, signed on an emergency basis by thenGov. Pete Wilson and
ratified by the state's voters by a 72-28 percent margin. It calls for
terms of 25 years to life for anybody convicted of a felony who has
two serious or violent prior felony convictions. New felony
convictions on defendants with single prior "strikes" can result in a
doubling of prison terms.

Not everyone convinced

Some criminal-justice experts have not been as quick as Jones to
'credit the landmark crimefighting law for the dramatic downturn in
crime.

They have attributed part of the drop to demographic changes in
California resulting in, fewer people in the prime crime-committing
age groups.

They also credit the lower crime rates to an improved economy that is
employing tens of thousands more people and' to -an increased number
of police officers taking a more preventive approach to
lawlessness.

- -But one expert who had been as dubious as anybody about the law's
impact came forth with some credit for it Friday.

It's probably true that 'three strikes' has had some impact, but it's
difficult to know what it has been," said Peter Greenwood of the Rand
Corp., whose, predictions five years ago that the law would add $5
billion to.the state's incarceration costs were trumpeted by "three
strikes" opponents.

Greenwood, however, said the rest of the country also is experiencing
"these wonderful declines in crime" over the past half-decade, making
California's "three strikes %related crime drop "hard to know."

Jones, one of the leading Republican elected officials in the state,
found the issue a little less complicated."I don't see any time frame
in the history of California where you've seen this dramatic a drop,"
he said in an interview. "And the fact that it coincides specifically
with the passage of 'three strikes' is not accidental. No other
factor, no other law, no other condition in the history of California
has had the dramatic impact 'three strikes' has had in reducing crime
in this state. Period."

Besides the 5,694 fewer murders, Jones said there have been 6,923
fewer rapes, 172,045 fewer robberies, 111,223 fewer aggravated
assaults, 454,654 fewer burglaries and 339,082 fewer motor vehicle
thefts in the five years since "three strikes" went into effect. His
spokesman, Alfie Charles, said the secretary of state arrived at the
numbers by applying the 1993 crime rate to population increases over
the ensuing years and subtracting the actual number of reported crimes
from those projections.

$21.7 billion savings

By attaching "tangible" and "societal" costs to each crime, ranging
from $3,700 for a stolen car to $2,940,000 for murder, Jones' office
came up with the "three-strikes" cost savings of $21.7 billion,
Charles said.

Jones also reported that rather than forcing a massive new prison
construction boom, the "three strikes" era has produced fewer
prisoners than Department of Corrections officials had projected
without the law.

The secretary of state told the ,crime victims Friday they "need to be
vigilant" to prevent the Legislature from trying to water down the
law.

He specifically cited a bill by Sen. Tom Hayden, D-Los Angeles, that
would require the triggering third strike to be a violent felony.

Hayden, in calling for an amended version of the "Three Strikes" law,
cited statistics showing that more than twothirds of inmates sentenced
on third-strike convictions committed nonviolent offenses.