ANALYSIS-MYANMAR WINS SOME CREDIBILITY ON DRUGS

YANGON, - Opium producer Myanmar,
accused of laxity in curbing poppy growing and being a money launderer
and harbourer of infamous druglords, is regaining some credibility in
its lonely war on narcotics, experts say.

Last week, Myanmar's campaign received a boost when Interpol pressed
ahead with a meeting on heroin in Yangon despite refusals by the
United States and most European nations to attend because of the
controversial venue.

Interpol's Director of the Criminal Intelligence Directorate Paul
Higdon publicly commended Myanmar's plan to wipe out drugs by the year
2014. Myanmar needed more world assistance to achieve this objective,
he said.

Colonel Kyaw Thein, member of the central committee for the control of
drug abuse, says Myanmar is struggling with the drug menace because
it sorely lacks money and equipment.

"We are ready to do it with whatever resources we have on our own. But
it will help speed up...if we get more international assistance," he
told reporters last week.

Currently, Myanmar gets little or no world aid to fight drug warlords
operating mainly in the northeastern Shan state which forms part of
the poppy growing Golden Triangle area where the borders of Myanmar,
Laos and Thailand meet.

Intensive crop surveys, with some U.S. involvement, are under way to
establish the true extent of the poppy cultivation to move away from
guesstimates of the past, Kyaw Thein says.

Myanmar predicts this year's opium crop will fall by half from an
estimated 680 tonnes produced in 1998 because of crop eradications
and bad weather. Experts say this forecast is too optimistic but
agree less will be produced.

Most of Myanmar's heroin goes to Australia and Canada.

Official data shows Myanmar had 151,000 acres (60,400 hectares) under
opium last year and Kyaw Thein claims 40,000 acres of poppy have
already been eradicated while another 6,000 will be cut this year.

But the United Nations puts opium output at 1,700 tonnes in
1998.

Experts at the Interpol heroin conference said they were encouraged by
Myanmar's determination to combat drugs. But some said the
government's plan would take many years to bear fruit.

"They have a good programme. But it will take a lot of time to start
to be truly effective...maybe five to 10 years," said one Interpol
expert.

The United States, in a significant declaration on Myanmar drugs, said
last week the country was the world's largest source of illicit opium
and heroin but noted there was no evidence its military government as
an institution was involved with drugs.

The U.S. State Department's Bureau for International Narcotics and Law
Enforcement said Myanmar's opium production fell by 26 percent last
year, due partly to government efforts to eradicate the poppy crop.

But it said there were persistent and reliable reports that Myanmar
officials, particularly corrupt army personnel in outlying areas, were
either involved or paid to allow the drug business to be conducted by
others.

Kyaw Thein said his government was aware of this corruption. Some of
those involved were as highly ranked as colonel and action was being
taken against culprits.

Myanmar's other problem is that its more than 6,000 km (3,750 miles)
of borders with Thailand on the east, China in the north and northeast
and India on the west, are so porous.

"It's so difficult to control movements of traffickers," said another
expert from the Interpol conference.

Experts and officials also say that the government, having arranged
ceasefires with poppy-growing, anti-government insurgent groups, now
has the dilemma of what to offer them in terms of crop substitution or
commercial opportunities.

If cash-strapped Myanmar was unable to help them in substitution, they
could return to the illicit trade.

A sticking point in Myanmar international relations on drugs is the
fact that it harbours two or more wanted drug traffickers -- Khun Sa
who lives in Yangon under government supervision and known trafficker
Lo Hsing-han who is doing business in Myanmar.

Kyaw Thein says his government believes it is better if these
druglords are kept out of the business, to reduce the outflow of opium
and heroin, than to charge them.

He also denies drug money laundering charges levelled at Myanmar and
says accusers should help find proof. "There is a lot of talk
outside...it's only talk. We have no evidence."

Interpol replied on Monday to criticism about the venue for the
meeting, saying that "Interpol's main responsibility is to prevent
drug production and trafficking".

"How can the organisation be expected to have the slightest hope of
achieving this if it refuses contact with one of the world's main
producer countries?" chief spokesman Serge Sabourin said in a
statement from Interpol headquarters in Lyon, France.