ANALYSIS-MYANMAR STRIVES FOR CREDIBILITY ON DRUGS

YANGON, March 1 (Reuters) - Opium producer Myanmar, accused of laxity in
curbing poppy growing and being a money launderer and harbourer of infamous
druglords, is regaining some credibility in its lonely war on narcotics,
experts say.

Last week, Myanmar's campaign received a boost when Interpol pressed ahead
with a meeting on heroin in Yangon despite refusals by the United States
and most European nations to attend because of the controversial venue.

Interpol's Director of the Criminal Intelligence Directorate Paul Higdon
publicly commended Myanmar's plan to wipe out drugs by the year 2014.
Myanmar needed more world assistance to achieve this objective, he said.

Colonel Kyaw Thein, member of the central committee for the control of drug
abuse, says Myanmar is struggling with the drug menace because it sorely
lacks money and equipment.

"We are ready to do it with whatever resources we have on our own. But it
will help speed up...if we get more international assistance," he told
reporters last week.

Currently, Myanmar gets little or no world aid to fight drug warlords
operating mainly in the northeastern Shan state which forms part of the
poppy growing Golden Triangle area where the borders of Myanmar, Laos and
Thailand meet.

Intensive crop surveys, with some U.S. involvement, are under way to
establish the true extent of the poppy cultivation to move away from
guesstimates of the past, Kyaw Thein says.

Myanmar predicts this year's opium crop will fall by half from an estimated
680 tonnes produced in 1998 because of crop eradications and bad weather.
Experts say this forecast is too optimistic but agree less will be produced.

Most of Myanmar's heroin goes to Australia and Canada.

Official data shows Myanmar had 151,000 acres (60,400 hectares) under opium
last year and Kyaw Thein claims 40,000 acres of poppy have already been
eradicated while another 6,000 will be cut this year.

But the United Nations puts opium output at 1,700 tonnes in 1998.

Experts at the Interpol heroin conference said they were encouraged by
Myanmar's determination to combat drugs. But some said the government's
plan would take many years to bear fruit.

"They have a good programme. But it will take a lot of time to start to be
truly effective...maybe five to 10 years," said one Interpol expert.

The United States, in a significant declaration on Myanmar drugs, said last
week the country was the world's largest source of illicit opium and heroin
but noted there was no evidence its military government as an institution
was involved with drugs.

The U.S. State Department's Bureau for International Narcotics and Law
Enforcement said Myanmar's opium production fell by 26 percent last year,
due partly to government efforts to eradicate the poppy crop.

But it said there were persistent and reliable reports that Myanmar
officials, particularly corrupt army personnel in outlying areas, were
either involved or paid to allow the drug business to be conducted by others.

Kyaw Thein said his government was aware of this corruption. Some of those
involved were as highly ranked as colonel and action was being taken
against culprits.

Myanmar's other problem is that its more than 6,000 km of borders with
Thailand on the east, China in the north and northeast and India on the
west, is so porous, experts say.

"Chemicals to refine drugs or to move them is so easy. It's so difficult to
control movements of traffickers," said another expert from the Interpol
conference.

Experts and officials also say that the government, having arranged
ceasefires with poppy-growing, anti-government insurgent groups, now had
the dilemma of what to offer them in terms of crop substitution or
commercial opportunities.

If cash-strapped Myanmar was unable to help them in substitution, they
could return to the illicit trade.

A sticking point in Myanmar international relations on drugs is the fact
that it harbours two or more wanted drug traffickers -- Khun Sa who lives
in Yangon under government supervision and known trafficker Lo Hsing-han
who is doing business in Myanmar.

Kyaw Thein says his government believed it was better if these druglords
were kept out of the business, to reduce the outflow of opium and heroin,
than to charge them.

He also denies drug money laundering charges levelled at Myanmar and says
accusers should help find proof. "There is a lot of talk outside...it's
only talk. We have no evidence."