CRIME'S DOWN ACROSS THE BOARD, CRITICS CONTEND

Study Doubts '3 Strikes' Effectiveness

LOS ANGELES - Five years after California became one of the first
states in the nation to pass "three strikes and you're out"
legislation, statistics show that crime is down and the prison
populations are up in the 24 states that have adopted such laws.

Supporters of "three-strikes" laws, which mandate prison terms for
those convicted of a third felony, say the statistics prove tough and
consistent application of long, sometimes lifelong, sentences serve as
a deterrent to crime. They argue that the tougher laws are keeping the
most serious criminals off the streets and thus dramatically reducing
the number of crimes being committed.

But others say that a common effect of these laws has been to send
people to prison for nonviolent crimes such as drug possession and
burglary. These critics point to cases in which people have been
sentenced to 25 years to life in prison for stealing such things as
slices of pizza, a bottle of vitamins and even steaks from a
supermarket.

One 19-year old threw himself out a New York City courtroom window
after a judge gave him a 15-year-to-life sentence for selling crack
cocaine.

Furthermore, a new study suggests that there is no correlation between
the application of "three strikes" laws and reduced crime rates - that
crime has fallen sharply in California and across the nation even in
states without such laws. Within California, rates have fallen equally
in counties that aggressively prosecuted third-time felons and
counties where district attorneys avoided such prosecutions.

Like the void that separates those on both sides of the debate over
the deterrent effect of capital punishment, those interpreting the
statistics do so from distinctly different perspectives.

"We have had a million fewer crimes in California in the last five
years and that is what 'three strikes' is all about," said California
Secretary of State Bill Jones, who sponsored the legislation as a
member of the State Assembly.

Mr. Jones issued a report last week using data from the California
Department of Justice showing that the state's homicide rate was down
51.5 percent from five years ago and that the overall crime rate had
fallen by nearly 38 percent. Violent crime fell 39.2 percent.

Those who claim that "three strikes" legislation was not responsible
for the decline, said Mr. Jones, "are just not honest enough to admit
that it works."

Dan Macallair, associate director of the Justice Policy Institute, a
nonprofit organization that studied the impact of the law in
California, said claims that tougher sentencing is responsible for
dropping crime rates are exaggerated.

"One of the problems with the 'three strikes' law is that it has been
driven by politics and ideology," said Mr. Macallair, whose
organization has aopposed "three strikes."

The debate about "three strikes" legislation in California gained
momentum after the kidnapping and murder of Polly Klaas, a 12-year-old
girl from Petaluma who was taken from a slumber party in her home and
found murdered two months later. The man later convicted of killing
her was on parole and had attacked children before.

Polly's father, Marc, joined with Mike Reynolds, the father of another
murdered girl, in an emotional campaign to keep repeat offenders
behind bars.

A statistical analysis by the Justice Policy Institute concluded that
the "three strikes" law had done little, if anything, to reduce crime
rates in California and had failed to affect crime among felony
offenders between the ages of 30 and 40, the group that was expected
to be hit hardest by the new law.

In addition to a booming economy that has reduced unemployment,
factors contributing to lower crime rates include better policing
strategies and a decline in the demographic group most inclined to
commit crimes.

"The population has been shift|ing," said Jon'a Meyer, assistant
professor of criminal justice at Rutgers University, pointing to the
reduction in the age group from late teens to early 30s. "You have
fewer people in the crime-age group."

Independent observers say comparisons between states are difficult
because the laws differ about what constitutes a serious felony and
because some states prosecute third-time felons far more aggressively
than others.

"Most of these (state) laws are habitual-offender laws," said Ms.
Meyer. She said most of the laws were not drafted in highly charged
political climates and that most were carefully written to target the
6 percent of repeat offenders who statistics show are responsible for
50 percent of crimes.