TWO MILLION PRISONERS ARE ENOUGH

Violent crime has dropped 21% since 1993, and property crime is at a post
l973 low. No one really knows which demographic economic or other factors
explain what fraction of the decrease in crime. But recent studies confirm
that increased incarceration has helped to cut crime. Yet the same research
also suggests that the nation has "maxed out" on the public safety value of
incarceration.

Until recently, increased incarceration has improved public safety. But as
America's incarcerated population approaches two million the value of
imprisonment is a portrait in the law of rapidly diminishing returns. The
Justice system is becoming less capable of distributing sanctions and
supervision rationally., especially where drug offenders are concerned. It's
time for policy makers to change focus aiming for zero prison growth.
Current laws put too many nonviolent drug offenders in prison. A 1997 study
by: Harvard economist Anne Morrison Piehl found that in Massachusetts about
half of recently incarcerated drug offenders had previously been charged and
a third had previously been convicted of a violent offense. But most of the
state's drug offenders had no known record of violence while half its
probation population consisted of violent felons.

Drug Only Offenders New York state is another example. Since 1973 The
Rockefeller laws have landed legions of nonviolent drug offenders in the
state s prisons for mandatory terms ranging from 15 years to life. I have
been calling for the repeal of the Rockefeller laws since 1995 and the case
for repeal Is now stronger than ever. Based on the results of a forthcoming
Manhattan Institute study by Ms. Piehl criminologist Bert Useem of the
University of New Mexico and me, It appears that at least a quarter of
recent admissions to the state's prisons are "drug only offenders," meaning
felons whose only crimes detected or undetected have been low level
nonviolent drug offenses. And we were able to derive similar drug only
estimates for several other state prison systems. In 1997 as crime continued
to decline the prison population grew by 5.2%. Spending on correctional
institutions is crowding out spending on other proven crime reduction
strategies including improved policing. A study released last month by the
Rockefeller Institute of Government found that In 1913 52% of total U.S.
criminal justice spending went to police 28% to corrections. By 1995 43%
went to pollce.and 37% to corrections. Policy makers at all levels of
government should dedicate themselves to further public safety gains while
keeping the prison population around two million and even aiming to reduce
it over the next decade. The path to zero prison growth can be paved by five
policy steps:

• Repeal mandatory minimum drug laws release drug only offenders and mandate
drug treatment both behind bars and in the community. Between 1980 and 1994,
the incarceration rate for drug arrests increased to 80 per 1 000 arrests
from 19. Continued increases in drug incarceration will yield little or no
public safety value. Recent studies by Yale psychiatrist Sally Satel and
UCLA criminologist Mark A.R. Kleiman indicate that community based coerced
abstinence programs tend to succeed where other approaches fall. The Center
for Alcohol and Substance Abuse has produced persuasive data on the promise
of specialized drug courts. The National Institute for Healthcare Research
has collected reams of reliable data about the efficacy of certain faith
based substance abuse programs.

• Reinvent and reinvest in probation and parole. Currently we spend next to
nothing on community based corrections. We get what we pay for. About a
third of all people arrested for violent crimes are on probation parole or
pretrial release at the time of their arrest. A recent study of Texas
probationers found that three years after receiving probation. 44% of first
time violent offenders with a prior felony history had returned to prison.
Likewise a 1996 New York state study found that within three years of their
release. 43% of state prison inmates released between 1985 and 1992 had
returned to prison half for a new crime half for parole violations.

Most of what ails probation and parole can be fixed by cutting officer
caseloads and spending more on performance driven programs that take
supervision seriously and put public safety first.

Boston's Deputy Probation Commissioner Ronald Corbett has spearheaded a nine
year effort to enter Into crime cutting partnerships with police community
leaders and clergy. Early on the effort resulting in a quadrupling in the
number of probationers prosecuted for violating the terms of their
conditional release. Even though few of those violations resulted In
Incarceration would be street felons got the message and Boston has since
had only four gun related youth homicides. Between 1991 and 1997 the number
of probation and parole agents In Michigan Increased by more than hall and
the aver age number of offenders supervised by each agent fell to 63 from
92. Former Michigan Director of Corrections Kenneth McGinnis explains that
these changes resulted In an increase of more than 55% in the number of
parolees charged with violating the terms of their release. But over six
years Michigan prison admissions resulting from probation and parole
violations grew by only 1.6% demonstrating Mr. McGinnis says that "intensive
supervision of offenders in community programs can be accomplished without a
disastrous impact on prison growth."

• Stop federalizing crime policy and modify federal sentencing guidelines
Washington's role in crime control has expanded dramatically since 1968. But
the results have been mixed at best. Too often Congress twists reasonable
ideas developed by local law enforcement (the need to restrain repeat
violent offenders regardless of their age) into grotesque federal policies
(last year's defeated plan to remove federal restrictions on incarcerating
Juveniles with adults). Earlier this year an American Bar Association report
led by former Attorney General Edwin Meese 111 detailed the dangers of
further federalizing crime policy. Federal lawmakers should heed the Meese
report and study "Fear of Judging" a just published book by former federal
prosecutor Kate Stith and Judge Jose A. Cabranes who make a solid case for
reforming federal sentencing procedures. Such changes would undoubtedly
reduce the number of drug only offenders In federal prisons by tens of
thousands.

• Study and promote faith based crime prevention and restorative justice.
Scientific studies testify to the efficacy of faith-based efforts. In a 1998
report issued by the Manhattan Institute ciminologist Byron R. Johnson of
Vanderbilt University summarized the results of a systematic review of more
than 400 studies testing the relationship between all sorts of religious
influences (churchgoing being just one) and crime and delinquency. The
report echoed the conclusion of a study published in 1995 in the journal
Criminology namely, that most of the best available empirical evidence
suggests that religion significantly reduces crime and delinquency. The
remarkable leaders and programs behind these findings know one God but many
religions and ideologies. The liberal New York Theological Seminary recently
launched an antiviolence youth outreach program started by ex-offender
graduates of its historic Sing Sing education ministry advised by leaders of
the American I Can program directed by former football star Jim Brown and
supported financially by both Republican Gov. George Pataki and the Ford
Foundation. The Prison Fellowship Ministry led by Watergate offender Charles
Colson a religious conservative recently launched an initiative dedicated to
ministering to the spiritual and material needs of prisonen ex prisoners.
and their families including the over one million youngsters In this country
who have one or both parents in prison or jail. The National Ten Point
Leadership Foundation led by Rev. Eugene F. Rivers III of Boston, a former
Philadelphia gang member has put responsible adults in the lives of
thousands of at risk youths and helped to spark ecumenical interfaith and
public private partnerships dedicated to reducing violence in cities all
across the country. These faith based anti-crime programs and a growing
number of secular ones as well are predicated upon the concept of
“restorative justice," according to which the ultimate purpose of the
criminal law is to restore the "shalom" or peace that crime robs from
victims perpetrators and com munities alike. Restorative justice returns
America to the ethical understanding of those who founded the American
penitentiary to reclaim public order and repair broken hearts. lives and
communities on both sides of the walls.

• Redouble efforts at juvenile crime prevention. I have argued before and I
continue to believe that demographic trends will exert strong upward
pressure on crime rates In the years just ahead unless we take strong steps
to prevent juvenile crime. Most experts seem comforted that only a fifth of
the more than 1.5 million annual delinquency cases in the mid 1990s involved
violent crimes and reassured by statistics showing that barely 0.1% of all
juvenile arrests were for homicide. But In Philadelphia and many other
cities in the mid 1990s homicide was the leading cause of death for people
age 13 to 21. Rosy statistics cannot mask the travesty of some 2,000
juvenile committed homicides a year a death toll that would have been higher
were it not for vast post 1990 improvements in emergency medical technology.
The statistics cannot hide the reality that an estimated six out of 10 of
the most serious youth offenders are never caught.

Horrific Peak Juvenile crime has declined from its horrific peak in 1994 but
with a record 70.2 million juveniles. In the population the number of 14 to
17 year olds will be 20% greater in 2005 than It was In 1996. By 2006 .
America will be home to some 30 million teenagers, the largest number since
1975. Over the next decade, all but five states will experience significant
growth in the number of young males entering their most crime prone years.
For all the good news about crime and other social indicators too many of
America's children are still growing up abused. (over a million
substantiated cases a year) impoverished (at least 16%) without a father In
the home (at least 40%) or subject to other influences that researchers have
consistently found are associated with crime and delinquency. In 1997,
researchers at the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics estimated that if
present incarceration rates were to remain constant 5% of Americans would be
imprisoned during their lifetimes (the rates are 16.2% for blacks 9.4% for
Hispanics and 2.5% for whites) . But the rates need not remain constant nor
should they. Zero prison growth is possible. In the end, whether or not we
achieve this goal will be a profound measure not merely of how nimble we are
when it comes to managing public safety cost effectively but also of how
decent we are despite our many differences when it came to loving all God's
children unconditionally including all those in criminal custody.

Mr. DiIulio is a professor of public policy at Princeton University and a
senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute.