U.S. MUST TREAD WARILY IN COLOMBIA, SAYS ANALYST

MIAMI (Reuters) - The United States, while waging war with NATO in
Yugoslavia, faces a growing crisis far closer to home in Colombia and
should tread cautiously in escalating its involvement there, a U.S. think
tank said this week.

Present U.S. policy on the conflict pitting Colombia's government against
leftist rebels and drug traffickers is unclear even as U.S. military aid is
stepped up, analyst John Sweeney wrote in a paper for the conservative
Heritage Foundation.

``The president and Congress would be wise to remember that America's
involvement in Vietnam began with a few dozen U.S. military advisors and a
small financial investment,'' he said.

``If the limits of U.S. military involvement are not spelled out clearly at
the outset, the risk is great that significant numbers of U.S. soldiers
could be sucked by default into the quagmire,'' Sweeney wrote.

At present about 200 U.S. military personnel are stationed in Colombia.
Washington, which is due to give Colombia a record $240 million aid package
in 1999, including weapons and aircraft, insists its resources are devoted
to the war against cocaine and heroin traffickers.

But the lines have been blurred because of the guerrillas' involvement in
the drug trade. Meanwhile peace talks between the government and the rebels
to end a war that has claimed 35,000 lives in the past 10 years alone have
stalled.

Sweeney faulted the Clinton administration for backing the peace plan.

The rebels would gain political legitimacy and have little reason to abide
by any peace agreement, he said. Even if the rebel groups themselves cut
their involvement in the drug trade, other trafficking groups would simply
relocate.

If the peace plan failed, President Andres Pastrana's options would be
either to surrender about half the country to the rebels or order an
ill-equipped and ill-trained army to try to defeat them in battle.

``What measures will the administration take if Pastrana's peace talks fail
and the civil war becomes more violent? Would the president propose sending
U.S. troops to Colombia to help keep the peace as he has done in Bosnia,
Haiti and Somalia,'' Sweeney said.

U.S. military officials have been irked by past suggestions that Colombia
was a potential Vietnam. While a year ago, they expressed pessimism about
the Colombian army's abilities and the national leadership under
scandal-tainted President Ernesto Samper, they now see some progress.

``I believe there is reason for cautious optimism that a long-term solution
to its internal security problems may be at hand,'' Gen. Charles Wilhelm,
head of the U.S. Southern Command, told a closed congressional hearing in
Washington in 46ebruary. A transcript of his statements was later obtained
by Reuters.

He cited a turnabout in leadership under Pastrana and reforms initiated by
Colombia's new defense minister.

``For the first time in years, I am confident that Colombia's military
leadership is equal to the task at hand. That said, the task is a daunting
one,'' Wilhelm said.