U.S. CRIME DECREASES DRAMATICALLY

Fbi Figures Show 9 Percent Drop In Seattle

Crime in the United States dropped dramatically last year, the seventh
consecutive year it has fallen, according to preliminary figures
released by the FBI yesterday.

The number of violent crimes and property crimes each fell 7 percent
in 1998, creating the largest annual decline since crime began to
decrease in 1992.

In Seattle, the drop was more dramatic, with the overall crime rate
and violent crimes dropping by 9 percent, said FBI figures.

Biggest nationwide decrease was in robbery, which fell 11 percent,
followed by a 10 percent decline in motor vehicle theft and an 8
percent decline in murder, the FBI said in its annual Uniform Crime
Report.

The decline in robbery, by far its largest single year decrease in the
1990s, is particularly significant, said Alfred Blumstein, a
criminologist at Carnegie Mellon University, because it reflects a
diminished demand for crack cocaine, which had driven violent crime
rates upward in the 1980s. "For people who are heavy drug users,
robbery is a favorite way to get drugs," Blumstein said.

In addition, he said, the drop in robbery may be attributed to the
vitality of the economy, which has become so strong that it is now
reaching into the inner cities and providing jobs, even if low paying
ones, to unskilled young people who had previously turned to selling
drugs because they were shut out of the job market.

Criminologists pointed to several other factors that appear to be
behind the drop in crime, though they acknowledge that it is
impossible to measure them precisely. These include a huge increase in
the number of people behind bars, more imaginative police strategies,
tighter gun control laws and widespread community programs to work
with troubled young people.

Beyond these factors, said James Alan Fox, dean of the college of
criminal justice at Northeastern University, there appears to be a
kind of contagion effect. "The more crime drops, the more lawfulness
becomes the norm, as opposed to lawlessness," he said.

Fox said the seven-year drop in crime, the longest uninterrupted
decline since the 1950s, underscored an important point -- that school
shootings like the recent massacre in Littleton, Colo., "are a
statistical aberration."

"For most of our kids, school is the safest place to be," Fox said.
Violence in school is far lower than violence in the home, in many
children's neighborhoods or in areas around schools, he said.

For criminologists, Fox said, the biggest question now is how long the
decline in crime can last.

The FBI report measures the so-called serious or index crimes, which
include the violent crimes of murder, rape, robbery and aggravated
assault and the property crimes of burglary, larceny, motor vehicle
theft and arson. The report is based on arrest data supplied by local
police forces.

The report said that rape and aggravated assault had both dropped 5
percent, while burglary and arson each went down 7 percent. Only
larceny, which includes petty theft like shoplifting and
pickpocketing, showed no decrease.

The declines in crime were generally highest in the nation's largest
cities, apparently a reflection of more intense police efforts in
those cities. Murder, for example, fell 11 percent in cities with a
population over one million, but only 6 percent in cities of 50,000 to
100,000 and not at all in small cities of 10,000 to 25,000. Only the
suburbs had an increase in murder, of 2 percent.

Murders in New York fell to 633 in 1998, from 770 in 1997, with New
York dropping to second place in reported murders for the first time
in memory. Chicago surpassed New York with 694 murders.