COLOMBIA REBELS CANNOT WIN WAR- MCCAFFREY

BOGOTA - Top U.S. anti-drug official Barry McCaffrey
described Colombia's guerrilla war Monday as a serious emergency but
said the drug-financed rebels stood little chance of toppling the government.

In an interview with Reuters, McCaffrey expressed regret at the recent
upsurge in the three-decade-old war which he said had created more
refugees than the fighting in Kosovo. At least 35,000 people, many of
them civilians, have been killed in the war in the last 10 years alone.

U.S. and Colombian authorities say the country's estimated 20,000
guerrillas, together with 5,000 rivals in ultra-right death squads,
fund their campaigns from the proceeds of drug deals.

``There's 240,000 police and army and 37 million people facing savage
attack from 25,000 internal enemies funded by hundreds of millions of
dollars in drug money ... It's a serious emergency situation,''
McCaffrey said.

``I don't believe personally that these narco-guerrilla forces or
paramilitaries are in a position to overthrow ... the police and army
given the political will of the Colombian people to stand behind their
government,'' he added.

Last year, a Pentagon report suggested the guerrillas could take power
within five years if not held in check.

``A situation where there's nationwide offensives killing hundreds of
people and with a million internal refugees, more than in Kosovo, is a
situation of incredible pain,'' McCaffrey said.

McCaffrey, on the second day of a scheduled three-day trip to
Colombia, told a news conference earlier the guerrillas could be
earning some $600 million a year from the drug trade -- allowing them
to arm themselves more heavily than the government armed forces.

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Latin America's
largest surviving rebel army, is engaged in slow-moving peace talks
with President Andres Pastrana's government.

The negotiations are going ahead with no prior cease-fire agreement.
The 46ARC has said it will use force to set up a socialist regime if
it does not win sweeping concessions at the peace table.

Two weeks ago the guerrillas launched a nationwide offensive from
bases in a Switzerland-sized region of southeast Colombia which has
been cleared of government troops to create a forum for talks.

Colombian Defense Minister Luis Fernando Ramirez has requested $500
million in U.S. military aid to fight the guerrillas. McCaffrey
himself has called for U.S. anti-drugs aid to South America to be
tripled to $1 billion next year.

Despite a recent decision to share intelligence about rebel movements
with Colombian authorities, Washington is sensitive to suggestions it
is becoming involved in counter-insurgency efforts.

46ive American soldiers are feared to have been killed when a U.S.
anti-drugs spotter plane crashed in mountains in southern Colombia
Friday. ``They have located the wreckage and it's under observation,''
McCaffrey told the news conference.

Before leaving Miami Sunday, he told reporters the line between
counter-narcotics and counter-insurgency no longer existed.

In Bogota, he suggested the issue was still under debate in Washington
but said Colombia would receive all ``appropriate assistance''.

``The connection (between guerrillas and drugs) is undeniable but the
solutions are more complex,'' McCaffrey said.