ABORTIONS 'RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE FALL IN US CRIME RATE'

Up to half the fall in the United States crime rate is due to abortions for
teenagers, the poor, and women from minority communities, according to
research that gives a twist to one of the most divisive issues in the country.

"No one will like it," said Steve Levitt, a University of Chicago
economist. "I don't think it is our job as economists or scientists to
withhold truth because some people are not going to like it."

Women whose children would have been most likely to commit crimes as young
adults instead chose to have terminations after abortion was legalised in
the early 1970s, according to the report by Mr Levitt and John Donohue, a
law professor at Stanford university.

"Abortion provides a way for the would-be mothers of those kids who are
going to lead really tough lives to avoid bringing them into the world," Mr
Levitt said.

The paper, which has not been submitted for publication in any academic
journal, says that states with high abortion rates in the 1970s had bigger
drops in crime in the 1990s and that each 10% rise in terminations led to a
1% drop in crime years later.

Serious violent crimes committed by 12 to 17-year-olds dropped by 40%
between 1993 and 1996, according to the justice department's latest crime
survey, and FBI figures show that the total number of youths arrested for
murder fell 39% between 1993 and 1997.

However David O'Steen, executive director of the national right to life
committee, said: "You mean killing babies in the 1970s led people in the
1990s to do less shoplifting? I can't believe that any significant per cent
of the population would argue that we should kill unborn babies to affect
whatever they say is being affected."

The fall in crime this decade started about 20 years after abortion was
legalised across the states in 1973. Previous theories for this included
increased prison sentences, more effective policing policies, a slower
crack cocaine trade and a strong economy.

Inclusion of abortion in the debate comes at a time when terminations are
at a low, about 1.2m a year, down from the 1990 peak of 1.4m. The latest
poll on abortion shows that 42% describe themselves as pro-life, up from
36% three years ago, and those who are pro-choice fell by eight points over
the same period, to 48%.

During the 1990s doctors and abortion clinics have been the targets of at
least 19 bombings, 100 arson attacks, seven murders and 621 death threats
or stalking incidents. Ten months ago one doctor, Barnett Slepian, was shot
in the head by a sniper at his home in Buffalo, New York.

Women aged under 25, who are separated, married, poor or from minorities,
are about twice as likely to have an abortion as others of child-bearing
age, said the Alan Guttmacher Institute, a research organisation in New
York. One in four pregnancies ends in abortion now compared with 20 years
ago when one in three did.

Cory Richards, the institute's vice-president of public policy, said of the
Levitt-Donohue paper: "This is not an argument for abortion per se. This is
an argument for women not being forced to have children they don't want.
This is making the point that it's not only bad for the women, but for
children and society."