ATTACK ON DRUG CZAR PERPLEXING

Mexico Cartels Felt Heat Or Inside Job?

MEXICO CITY, Mexico -- Some government officials are viewing an attack
against Mexico's drug czar as the clearest sign yet that the country's
efforts to fight narcotics must be improving.

But other observers outside the government are not so sure.

In the incident on Sunday, riders on two motorcycles opened fire on a
vehicle driven by Mariano Herran, the chief of Mexico's anti-narcotics
unit. But they managed only to wound one of the three bodyguards
accompanying him before being chased away by the guards' gunfire.

Mexico has rarely seen an attempt by traffickers to kill a government
official at Herran's level. At a news conference Sunday, he proclaimed
proudly that "narcotrafficking doesn't have the authorities in check. The
authorities have narcotrafficking in check, and this is the response."

If Herran is right, there has been a sea change in the unwritten rules that
have governed the relationship between Mexico's authorities and the
country's powerful cartels. The understanding has largely kept the peace
between the two sides while the drug trade here has blossomed into an
estimated $25 billion-a-year industry.

"This is a turning point in the fight against drugs in Mexico," said Jorge
Chabat, a political scientist in Mexico City. "This has never happened
before. Sometimes it has happened with commanders of the federal police
low-level officials, but this guy is very high up."

Unlike Colombia -- where a crusading justice minister was assassinated in
1984 and where Supreme Court judges, congressmen, prosecutors and judges
have been gunned down by drug lords -- high-ranking Mexican officials had
not been targeted by any of the cartels. In exchange, according to some
U.S. drug agents, the cartels have been given wide freedom to operate in
Mexico.

Critics inside U.S. law enforcement and observers outside Mexico's
government -- political scientists and former drug prosecutors -- say the
Mexicans haven't been attacked, in part, because they haven't imposed much
of a threat to the cartels.

With an estimated annual budget for bribes in Mexico of up to $7 billion,
the traffickers have instead managed to buy impunity and protection from
police, judges and even state governors.

Herran took over the anti-narcotics unit in 1997 after his predecessor,
Gen. Jesus Gutierrez Rebollo, was arrested on charges of taking payoffs
from a drug lord.

But analysts say they are puzzled by Sunday's attempt, in part because
there doesn't seem to be a good reason to target Herran now.

Herran's investigation against a former governor of Quintana Roo state
seems to have fizzled. The official, Mario Villaneava, who was suspected of
having helped the Juarez cartel ship drugs through Mexico's Gulf coast, has
dropped out of sight after he failed to show up for the swearing-in
ceremony of his successor.

In addition, Herran has said publicly that he wanted to see the alleged
kingpins of the country's methamphetamine trade extradited to the United
States for trial. But that possibility seems remote, the observers say.

"With Herran, you just haven't seen anything in the last three months --
big seizures of cocaine or a big success against a cartel boss -- which
would give the cartels a reason to do this now," said Sigrid Arzt, an
analyst of Mexico's drug trade and a former member of the country's
attorney general's office.

"You just haven't seen anything which would make you say `Wow, he's doing a
great job.' "

Most recently, Herran has been heading an investigation into trafficking in
the state of Tamaulipas that implicates the state police as well as the
state attorney general's office.

Herran said earlier this month that Tamaulipas has become a major
thoroughfare for drugs into the United States. He charged that some of the
country's biggest traffickers, including members of the Tijuana cartel,
Mexico's most violent, were involved.

When Sunday's attack occurred, Herran was accompanying his wife on a
weekend outing. A uniformed policeman on a motorcycle escorted Herran's
Chevrolet Suburban, which was followed by a chase car with two more heavily
armed bodyguards.

The attempt was botched, and the four assailants -- two each to a
motorcycle -- were outgunned by Herran's bodyguards. One motorcyclist was
wounded and captured. His partner eluded arrest after carjacking a minibus
and speeding away. The two others drove away on their bike, the authorities
said.

Analysts said the attack may have been more an attempt to send a message to
the drug czar rather than to actually kill him.

Others suggested that the drug cartels may not have been involved after all.

Herran, to cut down on corruption inside his office, has made police and
investigators subject to drug and lie-detector tests. Some of those who
failed have been reassigned or fired.

The fact that the assailants were aware of Herran's movements on Sunday
suggests that the attack may have been aided -- or perhaps entirely planned
- -- from the inside.

"This could have come from members of the judicial police inside the
anti-narcotics unit," Arzt said.

"These guys got very close to (Herran) and they certainly know his
movements and what he's doing."