THE NEXT STEP IN THE WAR ON CRIME

The Next Step in the War on Crime VIOLENT crime has dropped 26 percent
nationwide since 1993. But murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault
and youth violence are hardly less prevalent today than they were in
the late 1950s and early 1960s, when crime in the streets" first
alarmed average Americans. And the factors behind the drop to date may
be reaching the limits.

State prison beds for example, are filling up and becoming more
costly.

What now? We are not even close to maxing out on the vast, and vastly
cost effective, crime fighting potential of the single most important,
but least understood, component of the justice system: probation. On
any given day, more than 3 million persons, including more than 1.6
million felons, are on probation.

In some states, half of the probation population consists of persons
convicted of a violent crime. Legally, probation officers have
tremendous authority over their charges backed up by the threat of
jail stays or prison terms.

But the probation profession has never forthrightly deployed this
authority to promote public safety. The politically correct terms for
probation are 93community corrections94 and 93intermediate sanctions."
The reality, however, is that probation has corrected little and
sanctioned hardly at all. About two thirds of probationers commit
another crime within three years of their sentences.

Each year, probationers commit millions of felonies. Ex-probationers
in state prison in 1991 alone were responsible for some 6,400
homicides committed while 93under supervision94. Judges compel more than
90 percent of probationers to get drug treatment, pay restitution, or
meet other specific conditions. But about half of probationers do not
comply, and nearly 300,000 are officially on 93absconder status,"
meaning totally out from under even the pretense of control or
monitoring. Nor does probation really help most offenders.

For example, while an estimated 4 out of 5 probationers in some states
have a drug or alcohol problem, only 37 percent of all probationers
nationally participate in any type of drug treatment. Now the good
news: Over the last few years, a baker's dozen of the country's most
accomplished, respected and public spirited probation officials--among
them several former presidents of the American Probation and Parole
Association and the National Association of Probation Executives --have
deliberated about how to reinvent their field.

As the lone academic who sat in on several of their sessions, they
designated me a member of their Reinventing Probation Council. The
councils just released report, issued by the Manhattan Institute's
Center for Civic Innovation, is candid about probation's failures at
promoting safety, enforcing orders and helping offenders: Public
safety is the bottom line r and it cannot be achieved where
supervision, such as it is, takes place in the probation officer's
office.

Effective probation must take place where offenders live and work,"
and is 93not confined to the traditional 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., Monday
through Friday, workday.94 As the council argues convincingly,
everywhere that 93fortress probation" has been abandoned in favor of
active, intensive supervision of offenders, new anti-crime
partnerships between probation police and citizens have flourished, an
criminal violence has receded ever farther and ever faster. For
example the council's chairman Ronald P. Corbett, Jr., is a 26 year
veteran of Boston's probation system.

In the mid 1990s, he and his council colleague, Boston probation chief
Bernard L. Fitzgerald, spearheaded an effort to beef up street level
supervision of young adults on probation.

Having won the support of local cops and clergy, they boldly targeted
homicides.

In the first years, the number of probationers hauled in for
noncompliance with court orders quadrupled. The results were immediate
and startlingly positive.

Murders fell from 96 in 1995 to 35 in 1998--the steepest three-year
drop in the nation.

So far this year the city that had a record 153 killings in 1990 has
experienced only 17 homicides. While the council's report notes that
probation has long been underfunded (especially relative to prisons)
and understaffed (with average officer caseloads that in some cities
run into the high hundreds), it stresses how much probation can do
right now to make streets safer. Take Williamson County in Texas. In
1997, the local probation department decided to go after absconders.
In year one, the county arrested 470 probation violators and collected
$15,000 in unpaid fines and restitution. In year two, 605 violators
were arrested and $51,000 was collected. 93And this," the council
matter of factly remarks 93was accomplished by a two-person unit."
Fears that such no nonsense probation practices will increase prison
populations are probably unfounded.

So far at least, the programs have worked by means of general
deterrence. You only need to push very hard very early," reflects
Boston's Fitzgerald, 93and show you will work for real with cops and in
the community. . . Locking up one serious violator swiftly keeps
literally hundreds honest and responsive to the law." Leaders of
probation are ready, willing and able to put themselves and their
profession in the anti crime harness.

They deserve to be supported by policy makers and the public at
large.

Economic times will sour. More young males will soon enter their crime
prone years.

Reinventing and reinvesting in probation can prove to be our single
best anti crime insurance policy for the first decades of the next
century.

John J. DiIulio, Jr. is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute.