IS CUBA INVOLVED IN DRUG TRADE? GET THE FACTS

Is the Cuban government implicated in the drug trade? That's the question
the CIA has been asked to answer.

It is an unenviable assignment. The Cuban government insists that it is
doing everything it can to combat drug traffickers and vows to cooperate
with the United States. Hard-line anti-Castro politicians in this country
charge that the Cuban government is in the narcotics business and decry any
cooperation.

Caught in the middle is Gen. Barry McCaffrey, director of the Office of
National Drug Control Policy. The drug czar says that traffickers have been
making increased use of Cuban air space and territorial waters, but this
could be the result of lack of the resources needed to patrol a vast
coastline. On the question of regime complicity, McCaffrey has stated that
"there is no conclusive evidence to indicate that Cuban leadership is
currently involved in this criminal activity."

Now the State Department has asked the CIA to take another look. Just how
subject to spin the issue may become was suggested by the way that
announcement played in two South Florida newspapers on Aug. 16. CIA to study
drug traffic near Cuba -- No indication Castro government is involved, read
the headline in The Sun Sentinel. In El Nuevo Herald the story ran under the
headline: CIA investigates a probable Cuban connection with the drug
dealers -- Cuban-American representatives support official inquiry. These
two differing versions originated from the same source: an Associated Press
story by George Gedda.

It has happened before. A couple of years ago Congress asked the Pentagon to
report on the Cuban military threat. It was a transparent attempt by
hard-line policy advocates to keep a Cuban threat alive in the eyes of the
public and the political leadership. It backfired.

Since the Soviet collapse, the Cuban military has shrunk. Its main mission
now is to ensure regime survival by playing a big role in the economy and
backing up the security forces as a last resort in domestic crises. Its
major military role is deterrence, ensuring that in the unlikely event that
a future U.S. President had a notion of invading Cuba, his or her thoughts
quickly would turn to images of Lebanon, Somalia and Vietnam rather than
Haiti, Grenada and Panama.

The Pentagon study concluded that there is no Cuban military threat to the
United States. But that was the wrong answer, and a furor ensued.
Ultimately, Secretary of Defense William Cohen had to intervene and provide
a more politically-palatable answer, declaring that Cuba presents no
military threat but does pose a broader security challenge.

Catch Fidel Castro red-handed?

On the drug question, in the absence of conclusive evidence one can only
speculate. The drug trade certainly would look attractive to Cuban leaders
in view of the economic crisis. By collaborating with the drug traffic, the
Cuban regime would be striking a blow against its archenemy, the United
States, revenge for U.S. efforts to strangle the Cuban economy. This
scenario, together with some slim circumstantial evidence, has led to
charges of regime involvement in the drug trade.

On the other hand, Cuban leaders know that when drug traffickers get a
foothold in a country, they invariably become a parallel authority, using
violence and vast resources to influence politics. The Cuban regime,
however, abhors political interference and does not tolerate threats to its
monopoly on violence. Moreover, for drug trafficking to be worth the risk of
exposure, a state must undertake it in a big way. If that were the case, an
American intelligence apparatus that can record the conversations of Cuban
pilots down to the last obscenity would know about it. And, could Fidel
Castro afford to be caught red-handed after having executed Cuban national
heroes for alleged drug crimes?

Whether or not Cuba is involved in the drug trade is a factual issue, and
here the CIA review might be helpful. Unfortunately, no objective analysis
will settle the question or steer policy toward a rational course: Far too
many people in the Cuba-policy debate will accept only the facts that suit
their own conclusions.

e-mail: maxcastro@miami.edu