ANALYSIS-LATAM LEAVES COLOMBIA CRISIS TO U.S.

LIMA (Reuters) - Latin American leaders are concerned about growing anarchy
in Colombia but their reluctance to become directly involved risks sucking
the United States deeper into "narco-guerrilla" violence, analysts said.

With nationwide rebel offensives exposing the Colombian government's fragile
grip on power, U.S. officials have been sounding the alarm in the region
that the civil war could destabilize an area laboring to establish
democratic reforms.

The region's presidents, who rarely join forces to tackle problems, say they
are worried over the worsening crisis -- particularly the spillover of
violence, drug-trafficking and money-laundering into Colombia's five
neighboring nations.

But generally Latin American leaders are too preoccupied. Upcoming elections
- -- in Argentina, Mexico and other nations -- or domestic economic turmoil --
as in Brazil and Ecuador -- prevent them summoning more energy for the
hemisphere's most volatile crisis, political analysts said.

The complexity of a decades-old guerrilla war -- meshed with right-wing
paramilitary groups and violent drug cartels -- deters most from involving
themselves in the maelstrom.

"Colombia's crisis is amazingly complicated and entrenched -- and has no
obvious solution," John Crabtree, a visiting fellow of Latin American
studies at London University, said. "It's a no-win situation and it seems
Latin American leaders -- with enough worries of their own -- mainly prefer
to leave it to the United States."

The exceptions are Cuban leader Fidel Castro and his ally, Hugo Chavez,
Venezuela's new and unpredictable president. But, while both are willing to
mediate with the guerrillas, their anti-democratic credentials make them
awkward peace partners for Bogota and Washington.

In a region which lacks an authoritative institution to represent its voice,
Latin America's natural political leadership would have come from the
largest country Brazil. But President Fernando Henrique Cardoso has been
embroiled in a financial and political storm this year after an unpopular
devaluation.

In the regional void, the White House has stepped up its collaboration with
Bogota this year.

The United States is concerned government-rebel negotiations have stalled,
while drug production is soaring and President Andres Pastrana's popularity
has sunk in the midst of a severe recession.

Colombia's well-armed leftist groups, the Colombian Revolutionary Armed
Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN) are at the
height of their power. Heavily financed by drugs in a nation that produces
about 80 percent of the world's cocaine, the rebels have forced the
government to abandon an area as large as Switzerland in a peace talks
concession.

"Historically, the Colombian government has retained an authority even in
the most troubled times. But now there is a perception that many Colombians
no longer believe in the capacity of their government to stand above
developments," David Scott Palmer a Latin American expert at Boston

University said.

Earlier this month, Washington asked Pastrana to come up with a broad plan
to fight both the drug war and the guerrilla threat that it could back with
sharply boosted aid. A top-level U.S. mission is in Colombia this week to
review the plan.

The United States, with 200 personnel stationed in Colombia, collaborates
directly in the Andean nation through helicopter donations, anti-narcotics
training and intelligence sharing. Colombia is the highest recipient of U.S.
military aid after Israel and Egypt.

White House drug policy chief Barry McCaffrey has asked for U.S. funding of
the war on drug traffickers to be trebled to $1 billion because he says he
fears the "emergency" could destabilize the region.

Washington's high-profile coordination with Bogota this year has sparked
intense media speculation in Latin America that the United States is
considering direct military intervention. Chavez has even warned of a
"Vietnam under our noses".

Regional leaders have rejected the option and the United States flatly
denies any such plans.

But beyond objections to military intervention, Latin America is unlikely to
obstruct increased U.S. involvement in Colombia as it did in the 1980s in
Central America, analysts said.

In 1983, several Latin American nations formed the so-called Contadora group
that provided strong diplomatic opposition to U.S. activities in nations'
internal affairs -- particularly in Nicaragua during the Cold War.

With no such counterweight this decade, the United States has gradually
become more involved in Colombia -- particularly in the anti-narcotics fight
- -- and has started to see bloody consequences.

Last month, five U.S. soldiers died when an anti-drug plane crashed in a
guerrilla-dominated jungle zone.

"There's a slippery slope of interventionism. The more bodybags that appear
in the United States, the louder the calls are for extra people to be sent
down to protect their personnel," Crabtree said. "Once involved, there's a
tendency to get sucked in," he added.