THE COLOMBIAN DRUG BUST

VICTORIES IN the war on drugs are rare, so it would be wrong to be too
churlish about this week's arrest of 31 suspected cocaine traffickers based
mainly in Colombia. Their capture is certainly a triumph of collaboration
between Colombian and American law enforcement officials.

Colombia's police chief has pledged that the suspects will be extradited to
America, a fate that the country's traffickers have successfully avoided
since 1991.

That said, some skepticism is called for. Colombian drug rings have been
smashed before, with little obvious benefit.

In 1990 Pablo Escobar, the leader of the Medellin cartel, was imprisoned,
but the flow of cocaine was barely interrupted, and Mr. Escobar soon escaped
from jail. In 1993 Colombia's security forces found Mr. Escobar and killed
him, but the cocaine trade carried on. In 1995 it was the turn of the Cali
cartel to see its leaders captured.

Again, the cocaine business thrived.

Historians of the war on drugs cite two instances in which the smashing of
drug gangs produced useful results.

In the early 1970s international police caught up with the French Connection
and its Turkish opium suppliers.

This produced a street shortage of heroin; prices increased; addicts were
forced to seek treatment.

In 1989, similarly, Colombia's government launched an all-out war on the
Medellin cartel, after the traffickers exceeded their usual arrogance and
killed the ruling party's presidential candidate. Again, this pushed the
street price of cocaine up, encouraging addicts to get medical help. But in
both cases the price increases proved temporary. New suppliers quickly
spotted a market opening.

In sum, three decades of hunting down drug traffickers has done little to
curb drug abuse in America, and there is little reason to suspect that the
latest "success" will prove different.

Drugs reach consumers by too many routes, courtesy of too many shifting
alliances of criminals, for even spectacular police successes to disrupt
supply much. Donnie Marshall, the acting head of the Drug Enforcement
Administration, talks up the value of Wednesday's arrests by saying, "Over
time we dilute their talent pool." This defense of the war on drugs has the
virtue of modesty.

But it is hardly comforting.